应用统计
A fundamental assumption of classical hypothesis testing is that the significance threshold $\alpha$ is chosen independently from the data. The validity of confidence intervals likewise relies on choosing $\alpha$ beforehand. We point out…
The perceived advantage of machine learning (ML) models is that they are flexible and can incorporate a large number of features. However, many of these are typically correlated or dependent, and incorporating all of them can hinder model…
This paper introduces PoSSUM, an open-source protocol for unobtrusive polling of social-media users via multimodal Large Language Models (LLMs). PoSSUM leverages users' real-time posts, images, and other digital traces to create silicon…
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly challenged traditional epidemiological models due to factors such as delayed diagnosis, asymptomatic transmission, isolation-induced contact changes, and underreported mortality. In response to these…
We propose a new method to adjust for the bias that occurs when an individual monitors a location and reports the status of an event. For example, a monitor may visit a plant each week and report whether the plant is in flower or not. The…
This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework features three states: (1) a baseline state that captures…
Objective: Many low-severity crashes are not reported due to sampling criteria, introducing missing not at random (MNAR) bias. If not addressed, MNAR bias can lead to inaccurate safety analyses. This paper illustrates a statistical method…
An aspect of interest in surveillance of diseases is whether the survival time distribution changes over time. By following data in health registries over time, this can be monitored, either in real time or retrospectively. With relevant…
Over the past decade, there has been a severe staffing shortage in mental healthcare, exacerbated by increased demand for mental health services due to COVID-19. This demand is projected to increase over the next decade or so, necessitating…
This paper is concerned with upstreamness and downstreamness of industries and countries. Upstreamness and downstreamness measure respectively the average distance of an industrial sector from final consumption and from primary inputs.…
Background: Multiple medical and non-medical stressors, along with the complicity of their exposure pathways, have posted significant challenges to the epidemiological interpretation of the non-communicable diseases, including…
Coherence analysis plays a vital role in the study of functional brain connectivity. However, coherence captures only linear spectral associations, and thus can produce misleading findings when ignoring variations of connectivity in the…
Travel time is one of the key indicators monitored by intelligent transportation systems, helping the systems to gain real-time insights into traffic situations, predict congestion, and identify network bottlenecks. Travel time exhibits…
In cancer clinical trials, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important endpoint, providing information about patients' well-being and daily functioning. However, missing data due to premature dropout can lead to biased estimates,…
Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has emerged as an effective indicator of vegetation productivity and plant health. The global quantification of SIF and its associated uncertainties yields many important capabilities, including…
Background and Objective. With minor differences, most national colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs in Europe consist of one-size-fits-all aged-based strategies. This paper provides a decision analysis-based approach to personalized…
In observational studies of discrimination, the most common statistical approaches consider either the rate at which decisions are made (benchmark tests) or the success rate of those decisions (outcome tests). Both tests, however, have…
A potential voter must incur a number of costs in order to successfully cast an in-person ballot, including the costs associated with identifying and traveling to a polling place. In order to investigate how these costs affect voting…
The corpus callosum, the largest white matter structure in the brain, plays a critical role in interhemispheric communication. Variations in its morphology are associated with various neurological and psychological conditions, making it a…
This study utilised the dynamics of five time-varying models to estimate six essential features of financial return volatility that are relevant for robust risk management. These features include pronounced persistence, mean reversion,…