统计金融
In this paper we construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio by a combination of two techniques: Tikhonov regularization and direct shrinkage of portfolio weights. More specifically, we employ a double…
The study examines whether fama-french equity factors can effectively explain the idiosyncratic risk and return characteristics of Bitcoin. By incorporating Fama-french factors, the explanatory power of these factors on Bitcoin's excess…
We propose a method for constructing sparse high-frequency volatility estimators that are robust against change points in the spot volatility process. The estimators we propose are $\ell_1$-regularized versions of existing volatility…
We demonstrate the use of Conditional Variational Encoder (CVAE) to improve the forecasts of daily stock volume time series in both short and long term forecasting tasks, with the use of advanced information of input variables such as…
In this article we show how to analyze the covariation of bond prices nonparametrically and robustly, staying consistent with a general no-arbitrage setting. This is, in particular, motivated by the problem of identifying the number of…
Financial markets have long since been modeled using stochastic methods such as Brownian motion, and more recently, rough volatility models have been built using fractional Brownian motion. This fractional aspect brings memory into the…
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…
Financial organisations such as brokers face a significant challenge in servicing the investment needs of thousands of their traders worldwide. This task is further compounded since individual traders will have their own risk appetite and…
Modeling the trading volume curves of financial instruments throughout the day is of key interest in financial trading applications. Predictions of these so-called volume profiles guide trade execution strategies, for example, a common…
In today's competitive financial landscape, understanding and anticipating customer goals is crucial for institutions to deliver a personalized and optimized user experience. This has given rise to the problem of accurately predicting…
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict between two major agricultural powers has posed significant threats and challenges to the global food system and world food security. Focusing on the impact of the conflict on the global agricultural…
We analyze correlation structures in financial markets by coarse graining the Pearson correlation matrices according to market sectors to obtain Guhr matrices using Guhr's correlation method according to Ref. [P. Rinn {\it et. al.},…
Returns distributions are heavy-tailed across asset classes. In this note, I examine the implications of this well-known stylized fact for the joint statistics of performance (absolute return) and Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return). Using…
We consider the randomness of market trade as the origin of price and return stochasticity. We look at time series of trade values and volumes as random variables during the averaging interval {\Delta} and describe the dependences of…
Stock trend classification remains a fundamental yet challenging task, owing to the intricate time-evolving dynamics between and within stocks. To tackle these two challenges, we propose a graph-based representation learning approach aimed…
We investigate the predictive abilities of the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model compared to machine learning (ML) techniques across an unprecedented dataset of 1,455 stocks. Our analysis focuses on the role of fitting schemes,…
Drawing inspiration from the significant impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent COVID-19 pandemic on global financial markets, this study conducts a thorough analysis of three key crude oil futures markets: WTI, Brent,…
Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more…
The concept of time mostly plays a subordinate role in finance and economics. The assumption is that time flows continuously and that time series data should be analyzed at regular, equidistant intervals. Nonetheless, already nearly 60…
The S&P 500 index is considered the most popular trading instrument in financial markets. With the rise of cryptocurrencies over the past years, Bitcoin has also grown in popularity and adoption. The paper aims to analyze the daily return…