种群与进化
We consider a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on random trees and on the configuration model. On a rooted tree, where initially all individuals are susceptible apart from the root which is…
Geographic structure can affect patterns of genetic differentiation and speciation rates. In this article, we investigate the dynamics of genetic distances in a geographically structured metapopulation. We model the metapopulation as a…
Since the SARS outbreak in 2003, a lot of predictive epidemiological models have been proposed. At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, termed as 2019-nCoV, has broken out and is propagating in China and the world. Here we propose a…
We revisit the model by Wiser, Ribeck, and Lenski (Science \textbf{342} (2013), 1364--1367), which describes how the mean fitness increases over time due to beneficial mutations in Lenski's long-term evolution experiment. We develop the…
Clusters appear in nature in a diversity of contexts, involving distances as long as the cosmological ones, and down to atoms and molecules and the very small nuclear size. They also appear in several other scenarios, in particular in…
Population dynamics of a competitive two-species system under the influence of random events are analyzed and expressions for the steady-state population mean, fluctuations, and cross-correlation of the two species are presented. It is…
The outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China has caused a viral epidemic affecting tens of thousands of persons. Though the danger of this epidemic is evident, the statistical analysis of data offered in this paper indicates that…
Measures of tree balance play an important role in the analysis of phylogenetic trees. One of the oldest and most popular indices in this regard is the Colless index for rooted bifurcating trees, introduced by Colless (1982). While many of…
Patterns of vegetation are a characteristic feature of many semi-arid regions. The limiting resource in these ecosystems is water, which is added to the system through short and intense rainfall events that cause a pulse of biological…
In this paper, we propose a novel dynamical system with time delay to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. One typical feature of this epidemic is that it can spread in latent period, which is therefore described by the time delay…
The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the 2019-nCoV epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human transmission has driven the…
We review research papers which use game theory to model the decision making of individuals during an epidemic, attempting to classify the literature and identify the emerging trends in this field. We show that the literature can be…
A metric phylogenetic tree relating a collection of taxa induces weighted rooted triples and weighted quartets for all subsets of three and four taxa, respectively. New intertaxon distances are defined that can be calculated from these…
The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has quickly evolved into a global health crisis. The transmission potential of 2019-nCoV has been modelled and studied in several recent research works. The key factors such as the…
Since the end of 2019 an outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus, called 2019--nCoV, is reported from China and later other parts of the world. Since January 21, WHO reports daily data on confirmed cases and deaths from both China and other…
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity.…
In this paper, we establish a reaction-diffusion-advection partial differential equation model to describe the growth of algae depending on both nutrients and inorganic carbon in a poorly mixed water column. Nutrients from the water bottom…
Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption,…
We consider an asexually reproducing population on a finite type space whose evolution is driven by exponential birth, death and competition rates, as well as the possibility of mutation at a birth event. On the individual-based level this…
The monitoring, analysis and prediction of epidemic spread in the region require the construction of mathematical model, big data processing and visualization because the amount of population and the size of the region could be huge. One of…