种群与进化
Some basic facts that enable or constrain efforts to "flatten the curve" by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are summarized and placed in the current context of the COVID-19 epidemic. Analytical formulas are presented for a simple…
A mathematical model was developed describing the dynamic of the COVID-19 virus over a population considering that the infected can either be symptomatic or not. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed cases and death from…
We discuss how the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives changes our estimate of the COVID-19 basic reproduction number, also known as $R_0$.
We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. The analysis is based on a tanh formula involving two parameters. A polynomial correlation between the parameters gives an upper bound for the…
The evolution of antimicrobial resistance can be strongly affected by variations of antimicrobial concentration. Here, we study the impact of periodic alternations of absence and presence of antimicrobial on resistance evolution in a…
We study the evolution of cooperation as a birth-death process in spatially extended populations. The benefit from the altruistic behavior of a cooperator is implemented by decreasing the death rate of its direct neighbors. The cost of…
We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a…
Some ideas are presented about the physical motivation of the apparent capacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of the COVID-19 infection, and in general of quite many other epidemics. The main focuses here are:…
We present a very simple and transparent method to interpret time series of confirmed Covid-19 cases. Roughly speaking, the analysis of weekly new infections for each day is a tool for the definition and early detection of the turning point…
We illustrate and study the evolution of reported infections over the month from March 1st to April 1st in the New York State as a whole, as well as in each individual county. We search for exponential trends, and try to understand whether…
The new coronavirus covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. One of the questions many policy makers, and governments are asking themselves is how the spread is…
Explaining biodiversity in nature is a fundamental problem in ecology. An outstanding challenge is embodied in the so-called Competitive Exclusion Principle: two species competing for one limiting resource cannot coexist at constant…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…
In December 2019, COVID-19 were detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread to the whole Chinese mainland with the people during the Chinese Spring Festival Travel Rush. As of 19 February 2020, 74576 confirmed…
The classic multispecies coalescent (MSC) model provides the means for theoretical justification of incomplete lineage sorting-aware species tree inference methods. A large body of work in phylogenetics is dedicated to the design of…
The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure.…
In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…
In India the COVID-19 infected population has not yet been accurately established. As always in the early stages of any epidemic, the need to test serious cases first has meant that the population with asymptomatic or mild sub-clinical…