种群与进化
The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for…
In this paper, we propose a new model for the dynamics of COVID-19 infections. Our approach consists of seven phenotypes: the susceptible humans, exposed humans, infectious humans, the recovered humans, the quarantine population, the…
Currently the COVID-19 epidemic is developing in the City of Culiac\'n Sinaloa, Mexico, where up to April 20 of this year there have been 35 deaths associated with this epidemic. The reproduction number $(R_0)$ of an epidemic represents the…
In animal groups, individual decisions are best characterised by probabilistic rules. Furthermore, animals of many species live in small groups. Probabilistic interactions among small numbers of individuals lead to a so called intrinsic…
To model the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Russian regions and in Moscow, a discrete logistic equation describing the increase in the number of cases is used. To check the adequacy of the mathematical model, the simulation results were…
In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries.…
We propose a strategy based on the site-bond percolation to minimize the propagation of \textit{Phytophthora} zoospores on plantations, consisting in introducing physical barriers between neighboring plants. Two clustering processes are…
During decades, mathematical models have been used to predict the behavior of physical and biologic systems, and to define strategies aiming the minimization of the effects regarding different types of diseases. In the present days, the…
In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window $22/01-09/03/2020$. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic…
Understanding the dynamics of infectious disease spread in a heterogeneous population is an important factor in designing control strategies. Here, we develop a novel tensor-driven multi-compartment version of the classic…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the world since the World Health Organization declared its outbreak on 30th January 2020, recognizing the outbreak as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. As often said by politicians and…
Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…
In the midst of pandemic for respiratory illness, the call for non-pharmaceutical interventions become the highest priority for infectious disease and public health experts, while the race towards vaccine or medical intervention are…
We present a System Dynamics (SD) model of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in India. The detailed age-structured compartment-based model endogenously captures various disease transmission pathways, expanding significantly from the standard…
To control the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019, constant monitoring of the epidemic is required since, as of today, no vaccines or antiviral drugs against it are known. We provide daily updated estimates of the reproduction…
The standard methods to calculate the Total Fertility Rate require the reliable age-specific fertility rate including birth data and the related age-specific women's population data. Historically, the number of births was often not counted…
A key question in the current diversity crisis is how diversity has been maintained throughout evolution and how to preserve it. Modern coexistence theories suggest that a high invasion rate of rare new types is directly related to…
Unraveling patterns of animals' movements is important for understanding the fundamental basics of biogeography, tracking range shifts resulting from climate change, predicting and preventing biological invansions. Many researchers have…
Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…
We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model individually on each municipality. These are all covered by the same health system and, in the post-lockdown phase we focus…