种群与进化
This work presents a simple and realistic approach to handle the available data of COVID-19 patients in India and to forecast the scenario. The model proposed is based on the available facts like the onset of lockdown (as announced by the…
The dynamics of a population exhibiting exponential growth can be modelled as a birth-death process, which naturally captures the stochastic variation in population size over time. In this article, we consider a supercritical birth-death…
The stationary sampling distribution of a neutral decoupled Moran or Wright-Fisher diffusion with neutral mutations is known to first order for a general rate matrix with small but otherwise unconstrained mutation rates. Using this…
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…
The rapid and surprised emergence of COVID-19, having infected three million and killed two hundred thousand people worldwide in less than five months, has led many experts to focus on simulating its propagation dynamics in order to have an…
Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…
Sexual reproduction is not always synonymous with the existence of two morphologically different sexes; isogamous species produce sex cells of equal size, typically falling into multiple distinct self-incompatible classes, termed mating…
Bacteria typically reside in heterogeneous environments with various chemogradients where motile cells can gain an advantage over non-motile cells. Since motility is energetically costly, cells must optimize their swimming speed and…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
We develop and analyze in this work an epidemiological model for COVID-19 using Tunisian data. Our aims are first to evaluate Tunisian control policies for COVID-19 and secondly to understand the effect of different screening, quarantine…
The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…
In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for…
Patterned vegetation is a characteristic feature of many dryland ecosystems. While plant densities on the ecosystem-wide scale are typically low, a spatial self-organisation principle leads to the occurrence of alternating patches of high…
This study presents a family of stochastic models for the dynamics of influenza in a closed human population. We consider treatment for the disease in the form of vaccination, and incorporate the periods of effectiveness of the vaccine and…
This paper investigates the deterministic extinction and permanence of a family of SEIRS malaria models with multiple random delays, and with a general nonlinear incidence rate. The conditions for the extinction and permanence of the…
The stochastic extinction and stability in the mean of a family of SEIRS malaria models with a general nonlinear incidence rate is presented. The dynamics is driven by independent white noise processes from the disease transmission and…
This paper investigates the stochastic permanence of malaria and the existence of a stationary distribution for the stochastic process describing the disease dynamics over sufficiently longtime. The malaria system is highly random with…