种群与进化

The COVID-19 has caused more than three million infections and over two hundred thousand deaths by April 20201. Limiting socioeconomic activities (SA) is among the most adopted governmental mitigating efforts to combat the transmission of…

Though pandemic preparedness has been a focus of public health planning for centuries, during which our understanding of infectious disease dynamics has grown, our methodologies for managing outbreaks have remained relatively unchanged. We…

The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare…

In the dominant livestock systems of Sahelian countries herds have to move across territories. Their mobility is often a source of conflict with farmers in the areas crossed, and helps spread diseases such as Rift Valley Fever. Knowledge of…

Many theoretical models have been formulated to better understand the coevolutionary patterns that emerge from antagonistic interactions. These models usually assume that the attacks by the exploiters are random, so the effect of victim…

PyRoss is an open-source Python library that offers an integrated platform for inference, prediction and optimisation of NPIs in age- and contact-structured epidemiological compartment models. This report outlines the rationale and…

In this thesis we develop minimal models of the relationship between motility, growth, and evolution of cancer cells. We utilise simple simulations of a population of individual cells in space to examine how changes in mechanical properties…

Key traits of unicellular species, like cell size, often follow scale-free or self-similar distributions, hinting at the possibility of an underlying critical process. However, linking such empirical scaling laws to the critical regime of…

Although geographic isolation has been shown to play a key role in promoting reproductive isolation, it is now believed that speciation can also happen in sympatry and with considerable gene flow. Here we present a model of sympatric…

In microbial communities, each species often has multiple, distinct phenotypes, but studies of ecological stability have largely ignored this subpopulation structure. Here, we show that such implicit averaging over phenotypes leads to…

The stability of a complex system generally decreases with increasing system size and interconnectivity, a counterintuitive result of widespread importance across the physical, life, and social sciences. Despite recent interest in the…

We revisit the modeling of the diauxic growth of a pure microorganism on two distinct sugars which was first described by Monod. Most available models are deterministic and make the assumption that all cells of the microbial ecosystem…

Bayesian analysis of publicly available time series of cases and fatalities in different geographical regions of India during April 2020 is reported. It is found that the initial apparent rapid growthin infections could be partly due to…

Stochastic discrete-time SIS and SIR models of endemic diseases are introduced and analyzed. For the deterministic, mean-field model, the basic reproductive number $R_0$ determines their global dynamics. If $R_0\le 1$, then the frequency of…

Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…

In this paper we introduce a formal method for the derivation of a predator's functional response from a system of fast state transitions of the prey or predator on a time scale during which the total prey and predator densities remain…

In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…

In recent decades, an increasing persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns has been observed. In the course of the associated long-lasting anticyclonic summer circulations, heat waves and drought spells often coincide, leading to…

We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…

In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries…