种群与进化

The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number of cases and…

One important decision, especially for long-lived species, is where and when to start reproduction, i.e. where and when to recruit. For an informed decision on recruitment, individuals may prospect potential breeding sites and gather…

Strong social distancing restrictions have been crucial to controlling the COVID-19 outbreak thus far, and the next question is when and how to relax these restrictions. A sequential timing of relaxing restrictions across groups is explored…

To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the…

Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…

In this note, we describe simple generalizations of the basic SIR model for epidemic, in case of a multi-region scenario, to be used for predicting the COVID-19 epidemic spread in Italy.

Just like the degrees of human and animal interaction networks, the distribution of the times between interactions is known to often be right-skewed and fat-tailed. Both these distributions affect epidemic dynamics strongly, but, as we show…

We present and analyze a model aiming at recovering as dynamical outcomes of tree-grass interactions the wide range of vegetation physiognomies observable in the savanna biome along rainfall gradients at regional/continental scales. The…

We consider a minimalist model for the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT), assuming that residual fertility can occur in the sterile male population.Taking into account that we are able to get regular measurements from the biological system…

We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…

The generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) equations are a mathematical proxy for ecological dynamics. We focus on a gLV model of the gut microbiome, in which the evolution of the gut microbial state is determined in part by pairwise…

The current outbreak is known as Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19 caused by the virus SAR-COV-2 which continues to wreak havoc across the globe. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of…

We analyze an approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic without shutting down the economy while staying within the capacity of the healthcare system. We base our analysis on a detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, which takes into…

An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally…

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China is characterized by a distinctive algebraic, sub-exponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an…

Reconstruction of population histories is a central problem in population genetics. Existing coalescent-based methods, like the seminal work of Li and Durbin (Nature, 2011), attempt to solve this problem using sequence data but have no…

Phylogenetic networks are a generalization of phylogenetic trees allowing for the representation of non-treelike evolutionary events such as hybridization. Typically, such networks have been analyzed based on their `level', i.e. based on…

A reaction-diffusion model was developed describing the spread of the COVID-19 virus considering the mean daily movement of susceptible, exposed and asymptomatic individuals. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed infection…

In this paper, we use an adaptive modeling framework to model and study how nutritional status (measured by the protein to carbohydrate ratio) may regulate population dynamics and foraging task allocation of social insect colonies.…

Since the beginning of March 2020, the cumulative numbers of cases of infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany have been reported on a daily basis. The reports originate from national laws, according to which positive test…