种群与进化

Mina and Andersen, authors of the Perspectives in Science: COVID-19 Testing: One Size Does Not Fit All have referred to results and adopted conclusions from recently published governmental report Pavelka et al. "The effectiveness of…

We highlight the usefulness of city-scale agent-based simulators in studying various non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage an evolving pandemic. We ground our studies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and demonstrate the power of…

Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting…

An accurate closed-form solution is obtained to the SIR Epidemic Model through the use of Asymptotic Approximants (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48). The solution is created by analytically continuing the divergent…

For prebiotic chemistry to succeed in producing a starting metastable, autocatalytic and reproducing system subject to evolutionary selection it must satisfy at least two apparently contradictory requirements: Because such systems are rare,…

This study describes the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and infections via a Monte Carlo approach. The analyses include death's data from USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, India and Russia, which comprise the four countries with the highest number of…

The diffusion approximation (DA) is widely used in the analysis of stochastic population dynamics, from population genetics to ecology and evolution. DA is an uncontrolled approximation that assumes the smoothness of the calculated quantity…

The cell cycle duration is a variable cellular phenotype that underlies long-term population growth and age structures. By analyzing the stationary solutions of a branching process with heritable cell division times, we demonstrate…

We develop and analyze a spatial temporal model of light driven ecotoxicological processes, motivated by an aquatic predator-prey system of algae and \textsl{Daphnia} subject to a contaminant. Population dynamics are driven by light, which…

We have studied the dynamic evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Argentina. The marked heterogeneity in population density and the very extensive geography of the country becomes a challenge itself. Standard compartment models fail when…

Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…

Epidemic models play a key role in understanding and responding to the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Widely used compartmental models are static and are of limited use to evaluate intervention strategies with the emerging pandemic. Applying…

In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…

We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…

The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…

Herein, we provide estimations for the effective reproduction number $R_e$ for the greater metropolitan area of Athens, Greece during the first wave of the pandemic (February 26-May 15, 2020). For our calculations, we implemented, in a…

We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the…

By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration", we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were…

The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the measures of disease impact that can be of importance for policy making. Here we show that many of the studies on which these estimates are based are scientifically flawed for…

Faced with the 2020 SARS-CoV2 epidemic, public health officials have been seeking models that could be used to predict not only the number of new cases but also the levels of hospitalisation, critical care and deaths. In this paper we…