Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
Abstract
By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration", we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were issued. This feature, possibly due to the increase of social awareness, can be rationalised by a susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered (SHIR) model introduced by Barnes, in which a hidden (isolated from the virus) compartment is gradually populated by susceptible people, thus reducing the effectiveness of the virus spreading. By introducing a partial hiding mechanism, for instance due to the impossibility for a fraction of the population to enter the hidden state, we obtain a model that, although still sufficiently simple, faithfully reproduces the different deceleration trends observed in several major countries.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2010.03416,
title = {Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading},
author = {Giacomo Barzon and Karan Kabbur Hanumanthappa Manjunatha and Wolfgang Rugel and Enzo Orlandini and Marco Baiesi},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2010.03416},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
v2: published version; more countries analysed