Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models
Abstract
Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which assumes no recovery over time, and allows for the transmission-dynamics equations to be solved analytically. The D-model can be extended to describe various focuses of infection, which may account for the original pandemic (D1), the lockdown (D2) and other effects (Dn). The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several countries (China, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Iran, USA and Germany) shows a similar behavior in concord with the D-model trend, characterized by a rapid increase of death cases followed by a slow decline, which are affected by the earliness and efficiency of the lockdown effect. These results are in agreement with more accurate calculations using the extended SIR model with a parametrized solution and more sophisticated Monte Carlo grid simulations, which predict similar trends and indicate a common evolution of the pandemic with universal parameters.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2005.06742,
title = {Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models},
author = {J. E. Amaro and J. Dudouet and J. N. Orce},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.06742},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
12 pages, 13 figures