A numerical simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina using the SEIR model
Abstract
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour the data, we show different cases. In all of them the reproduction ratio decreases after early lockdown, but then raises, probably due to an increase in contagion in highly populated slums. Therefore it is mandatory to reverse this growing trend in by applying control strategies to avoid a high number of infectious and dead individuals. The model provides an effective procedure to estimate epidemic parameters (fatality rate, transmission probability, infection and incubation periods) and monitor control measures during the epidemic evolution.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2005.06297,
title = {A numerical simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina using the SEIR model},
author = {Juan E. Santos and Jose' M. Carcione and Gabriela B. Savioli and Patricia M. Gauzellino and Alejandro Ravecca and Alfredo Moras},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.06297},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2004.03575