The SHIR Model: Realistic Fits to COVID-19 Case Numbers
Populations and Evolution
2020-07-30 v1 Physics and Society
Abstract
We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This "SHIR" model is applied to COVID-19 data, and shows promise as a simple, tractable formalism with few parameters that can be used to model pandemic case numbers. As an example we show that the average time dependence of new COVID-19 cases per day from 15 Central and Western European countries is in good agreement with the analytic, parameter-free prediction of the model
Cite
@article{arxiv.2007.14804,
title = {The SHIR Model: Realistic Fits to COVID-19 Case Numbers},
author = {T. Barnes},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2007.14804},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
Latex, 13 pp., 13 figs. (eps)