种群与进化
In individual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, the count of confirmed cases and deaths follow a Gompertz growth function for locations of very different sizes. This lack of dependence on region size leads us to hypothesize that virus spread depends on…
The Beyond-Linear-Use-of-Equation-Superposition (BLUES) function method is extended to coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations and applied to the epidemiological SIRS model with vaccination. Accurate analytic approximations are…
Many of the models used nowadays in mathematical epidemiology, in particular in COVID-19 research, belong to a certain sub-class of compartmental models whose classes may be divided into three "(x, y, z)" groups, which we will call…
We present an SI epidemic model whereby a continuous variable captures variability in proliferative potential and resistance to infection among susceptibles. The occurrence of heritable, spontaneous changes in these phenotype and the…
We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219…
Summary: The CoV-Spectrum website supports the identification of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and the tracking of known variants. Its flexible amino acid and nucleotide mutation search allows querying of variants before they are…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, first introduced in [Parolini et al, Proc R. Soc. A., 2021] to analyse the COVID-19…
Many systems may switch to an undesired state due to internal failures or external perturbations, of which critical transitions toward degraded ecosystem states are a prominent example. Resilience restoration focuses on the ability of…
The COVID-19 pandemic started in Wuhan, China, and caused the worldwide spread of the RNA virus SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Because of its mutational rate, wide geographical distribution, and host response variance this…
Invasive pest establishment is a pervasive threat to global ecosystems, agriculture, and public health. The recent establishment of the invasive spotted lanternfly in the northeastern United States has proven devastating to farms and…
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted health systems and economies worldwide. Significant global efforts are therefore ongoing to improve vaccine efficacies, optimize vaccine deployment, and develop new antiviral therapies to combat…
Vaccination hesitancy is a major obstacle to achieving and maintaining herd immunity. It is therefore of prime importance for public health authorities to understand the dynamics of an anti-vaccine opinion in the population. We introduce a…
Detections of mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus gave rise to new packages of interventions. Among them, international travel restrictions have been one of the fastest and most visible responses to limit the spread of the variants. While…
We consider the effect of non-constant parameters on the human-forest interaction logistic model coupled with human technological growth introduced in "Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis"[1]. In…
The deer tick, $\textit{Ixodes scapularis}$, is a vector for numerous human diseases, including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Concern is rising in the US and abroad as the population and range of this species grow and new…
Inference of the marginal likelihood of sample allele configurations using backward algorithms yields identical results with the Kingman coalescent, the Moran model, and the diffusion model (up to a scaling of time). For inference of…
The vast majority of multi-cellular organisms are anisogamous, meaning that male and female sex cells differ in size. It remains an open question how this asymmetric state evolved, presumably from the symmetric isogamous state where all…
The "genetic purity" of French wild boar populations has been monitored since the 1980s based on a cytogenetic difference between wild boars and domestic pigs (36 and 38 chromosomes, respectively). This difference makes it possible to…
Many current challenges involve understanding the complex dynamical interplay between the constituents of systems. Typically, the number of such constituents is high, but only limited data sources on them are available. Conventional…