大气与海洋物理

Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…

Traditional general circulation models, or GCMs -- i.e. 3D dynamical models with unresolved terms represented in equations with tunable parameters -- have been a mainstay of climate research for several decades, and some of the pioneering…

Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in…

In 2021 300 mm of rain, nearly half the average annual rainfall, fell near Catania (Sicily island, Italy). Such events took place in just a few hours, with dramatic consequences on the environmental, social, economic, and health systems of…

The influence of human activity own the earth's atmospheric composition has never been more pronounced. Anthropogenic pollution is in fact the largest effector of the observed evolving atmospheric composition (Wallace, 2006). PM2.5 is a…

Historical observations of severe weather and simulated severe weather environments (i.e., features) from the Global Ensemble Forecast System v12 (GEFSv12) Reforecast Dataset (GEFS/R) are used in conjunction to train and test random forest…

Exact analytical expressions for available potential energy density (APE) and available potential vorticity (APV) are derived from first principles. These APE and APV expressions align with previously known quantities found using…

Climatologies of the mixed layer depth (MLD) have been provided using several definitions based on temperature/density thresholds or hybrid approaches. The upper ocean pycnocline (UOP) that sits below the mixed layer base remains poorly…

Convective available potential energy (CAPE), a metric associated with severe weather, is expected to increase with warming. Under the most widely-accepted theory, developed for strongly convective regimes, mean CAPE should rise following…

Winds play an essential role in the climate system. In this study, we analyze the global pattern of the diurnal cycle of surface (10 m) winds from the ERA5 reanalysis data. We find that over the land and especially over sand dune regions,…

Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based-on an early coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation, that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In…

Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…

A physically plausible lower bound on the spatially varying geostrophic mesoscale eddy energy dissipation time-scale within the ocean, related to the geographical energy transfer rate out of the geostrophic mesoscales, is provided by means…

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

Consistent with satellite-tracked trajectories of drogued drifters, but at odds with Eulerian assessment of satellite-altimetry measurements of sea-surface height, we show that North Brazil Currents Rings (NBCRs) are incapable of bypassing…

The trustworthiness of neural networks is often challenged because they lack the ability to express uncertainty and explain their skill. This can be problematic given the increasing use of neural networks in high stakes decision-making such…

A model of the extent of wave driven overwash into fields of sea ice floes is proposed. The extent model builds on previous work modelling wave overwash of a single floe by regular waves by including irregular incoming waves and random floe…

Radar Wind Profilers (RWP) are well-established instruments for the probing of the atmospheric boundary layer, with the immense advantage of long-range and all-weather operation capability. One of their main limitations, however, is a…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

India is the second-highest contributor to the post-2000 global greening. With satellite data, here we show that this 18.51% increase in Leaf Area Index (LAI) during 2001-2019 fails to translate into increased carbon uptake due to warming…