大气与海洋物理
Understanding regional dynamical structures in the sea is fundamental to characterize energy transfer and transport properties, with implications in physical and biogeochemical modeling and characterization. In this work, we study the…
There is a growing urgency to track greenhouse gasses with the resolution, precision and accuracy needed to support independent verification of $CO_2$ fluxes at local to global scales. The current generation of space-based sensors, however,…
Considering turbulence is crucial to understanding clouds. However, covering all scales involved in the turbulent mixing of clouds with their environment is computationally challenging, urging the development of simpler models to represent…
Fine particulate matter(PM2.5) pollution in China is strongly modulated bymeteorological variability, yet its seasonal predictability from oceanic signals remains unclear. Here we identify the leading PM2.5 variability mode over China and…
We present JAX-SCM v1.0, an open-source atmospheric single-column model for boundary layer research, implemented in Python using the JAX computing library. The model solves for horizontal wind, potential temperature, and specific humidity,…
Most nowcasting systems, built on radar reflectivity, focus on current precipitation, ignoring the atmospheric precursors -- such as low-level convergence, turbulent eddies, and latent heating -- that offer a fleeting window to foresee…
A data-driven air-sea full-coupling regional forecast model with submesoscale-permitting, named "Volador 1.0", is developed for the South China Sea (SCS). The model features a Swin-Transformer framework integrated with a Mixture-of-Experts…
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…
Climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but the magnitude is highly uncertain. Some of this uncertainty is structural, as most climate models neglect increasing…
Severe convection produces localized hazards that often require warnings before radar echoes fully reveal storm development. Convective initiation and the maintenance of intense convection remain challenging for radar-only nowcasting…
The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is a measure of thermal comfort that quantifies how humans experience environmental conditions. Due to its robustness and versatility as a bioclimatic indicator, it has been extensively employed…
Earth's atmosphere operates a steam cycle in which water vapor evaporates from the surface, expands, condenses, and returns as precipitation. The Clausius-Clapeyron law relates the incremental expansion work of saturated water vapor to…
Could it be that AI weather models are solving physical equations, although they may not be the equations used by conventional NWP models? We compute correlations of forecast skill and Centered Kernel Alignment, providing evidence that…
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a possible climate engineering strategy where reflective particles are injected into the stratosphere, has been explored to mitigate global warming and its associated risks, such as the intensification…
Data assimilation (DA) integrates numerical model forecasts with observations to achieve the optimal state estimation. Ensemble-based methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are widely used for state estimation for…
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…
The Northern Hadley cell (NHC) is a fundamental component of Earth's atmospheric circulation, governing precipitation patterns affecting nearly four billion people. Despite its importance, the sign of recent multidecadal trends in NHC…
Forecast verification plays a crucial role in the development cycle of operational numerical weather prediction models. At the same time, verification remains a challenge as the traditionally used non-spatial forecast quality metrics…
The African easterly jet (AEJ) is a prominent circulation feature in the tropical atmosphere. It transports mineral dust and generates easterly waves that serve as seeds for hurricanes. Conventional wisdom holds that the AEJ is in thermal…
Understanding how typhoons respond to localized perturbations in their environmental fields is fundamental to assessing the limits of predictability and exploring the potential for track or intensity intervention. This study develops a…