大气与海洋物理
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
We analyse Indian summer monsoon (ISM) seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2 model, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), to examine the cause for highest all-India ISM rainfall…
The two main drivers of climate change on sub-Milankovic time scales are re-assessed by means of a multiple regression analysis. Evaluating linear combinations of the logarithm of carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa-index as…
Skilful prediction of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall (ISMR) at least one season in advance has great socio-economic value. It represents a lifeline for about a sixth of the world's population. The ISMR prediction remained…
Earth System Models (ESM) are important tools that allow us to understand and quantify the physical, chemical & biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of elements of the Earth System, comprising of the atmosphere, ocean, land,…
It is shown that the physical damage resulting from severe weather phenomenon such as hurricanes and tornadoes encapsulated in various scales such as Saffir-Simpson, TORRO and the Enhanced Fujita Scale, and measured by the Power Dissipation…
The effects of El Ni\~no's two distinct flavors, East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki El Ni\~no, on global climate variability have been studied intensively in recent years. Most of these studies have made use of linear…
Volcanic ash clouds often become multilayered and thin with distance from the vent. We explore one mechanism for development of this layered structure. We review data on the characteristics of turbulence layering in the free atmosphere, as…
With climate modeling predicting a raise of at least 2 C by year 2100, the fate of ice has become a serious concern, but we still do not understand how ice grows (or melts). In the atmosphere, crystal growth rates of basal and prismatic…
Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…
Volcanic ash clouds often become multilayered and thin with distance from the vent. We explore one mechanism for development of this layered structure. We review data on the characteristics of turbulence layering in the free atmosphere, as…
An algorithm for representing irregular satellite data obtained from advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) uniformly in space and time is introduced and comparison with WAVEWATCH III model (WW3) data is carried out. Swell global data for…
We analyze the distortion of wind-generated near-inertial waves by steady and unsteady barotropic quasi-geostrophic eddies, with a focus on the evolution of the horizontal wavevector $\boldsymbol{k}$ under the effects of mesoscale strain…
Based on new radiative transfer numerical evaluations, we reconsider an argument presented by Schack in 1972 that says that saturation of the absorption of infrared radiation by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sets in as soon as the…
Neural networks are a promising technique for parameterizing sub-grid-scale physics (e.g. moist atmospheric convection) in coarse-resolution climate models, but their lack of interpretability and reliability prevents widespread adoption.…
We quantify the value of sub-seasonal forecasts for a real-world prediction problem: the forecasting of French month-ahead energy demand. Using surface temperature as a predictor, we construct a trading strategy and assess the financial…
Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in…
Based on experimental results of recent years, this article presents a qualitative description of a possible mechanism (termed the Mechanism) covering the main stages of lightning initiation, starting before and including the initiating…
As an important symbol of civilization and culture, architectures originally were built for sheltering human beings from weather disasters and therefore should be affected by climate change, particularly the associated change in the…
Drifters deployed in close proximity collectively provide a unique observational data set with which to separate mesoscale and submesoscale flows. In this paper we provide a principled approach for doing so by fitting observed velocities to…