概率论

We study the trapping phenomenon of random walks in random environments of i.i.d. random conductances on the bonds of the grid $\mathbb{Z}^d$, the so-called random conductance model. Our main results concern the important model with…

Although false for general graphs, this note gives an elementary proof of the bunkbed conjecture for any acyclic graph. The argument is short and self-contained, and may be of educational interest.

Continuous time Markov chains are commonly used as models for the stochastic behavior of chemical reaction networks. More precisely, these Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (SCRNs) are frequently used to gain a mechanistic understanding…

Understanding rare events is critical across domains ranging from signal processing to reliability and structural safety, extreme-weather forecasting, and insurance. The analysis of rare events is a computationally challenging problem,…

We introduce a novel and efficient simulation scheme for Hawkes processes on a fixed time grid, leveraging their affine Volterra structure. The key idea is to first simulate the integrated intensity and the counting process using Inverse…

In this article, we derive precise estimates for the probability that a Bessel bridge of dimension $d \ge 0$ and end points $x$ and $a+bT-j$ stays below the linear barrier $a + bt$ for all $t \in [0,T]$. We identify the leading order term…

This article establishes several necessary and sufficient criteria on asymptotic stability and mean ergodicity in various types of topologies for Feller processes taking values in Polish spaces. In particular, asymptotic stability and mean…

In this paper, we determine the sharp threshold for universality of cokernels of random matrices over finite fields. More precisely, we prove the following: given any constant $c>1$, let $A(n)$ be a random $n \times n$ matrix over…

In this paper we study the dynamics of stochastic microorganism flocculation models. Given the strong influence of environmental and seasonal fluctuations that are present in these models, we propose a stochastic model that includes…

In this paper, we introduce a convergence notion for ordered selections. Our convergence notion is based on subpermutation densities and convergences of the marginal distributions. A particular case of this convergence is the well-known…

The celebrated De Giorgi-Nash-Moser theory ensures that solutions to uniformly elliptic or parabolic PDEs are bounded and H\"older continuous, even with merely bounded measurable coefficients. For parabolic SPDEs with transport noise,…

We look at the eigenvalues of the complex Ginibre Ensemble of random matrices consisting of $N$ eigenvalues. We study the event that for $ {c \in [0,1]}$, $\lfloor cN \rfloor$ of the eigenvalues are located outside of a disk of radius $ R…

We investigate the overlap matrix between the eigenvectors of a Wigner matrix $H_{N+K}$ of size $(N+K)\times(N+K)$ and those of its principal minor $H_N$ of size $N\times N$, for both the real symmetric ($\beta=1$) and complex Hermitian…

We consider a spatial SIR epidemic model where the infectivity of infected individuals depends upon their age of infection, and infections are non local. The domain is an unbounded subset of $\R^d$,and the individuals do not move. We extend…

In a multiplex network a common set of nodes is connected through different types of interactions, each represented as a separate graph (layer) within the network. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of submultiplexes, the…

This paper investigates asymptotic distribution of complex zeros of random polynomials $P_n(z):=\sum_{k=0}^{n}b(k)\xi_k z^k$, as $n\to\infty$, where $b$ is a regularly varying function at infinity with index $\alpha\in \mathbb{R}$ and…

In this paper we investigate continuity properties for ruin probability in the classical risk model. Properties of contractive integral operators are used to derive continuity estimates for the deficit at ruin. These results are also…

In this paper, we investigate the stochastic counterpart of the generalized Wright analysis introduced in Beghin et al.~ in Integral Equations and Operator Theory, {\bf 97}, 2025. We define a new class of non-Gaussian and non-Markovian…

This paper examines the model-dependent asymptotic behaviour of the critical threshold intensity for stretched-out random connection models (RCMs) on hyperbolic spaces. The proof uses lace expansion arguments, but has notable qualitative…

We consider a double secretary problem which contains $2n$ applicants of $n$ different qualities, two of each quality. As in the classical secretary problem (CSP), the applicants are interviewed sequentially in a random order by a manager…