综合经济学
This paper introduces a new factor contributing to the decline in marriage and fertility: the growth of leisure technology. Over recent decades, high-income countries have experienced two notable shifts in household and family dynamics.…
Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage is a well established determinant of health in later life. Less is known about how early-life deprivation unfolds when individuals experience major institutional transformation and migration in…
Despite the scale of capital being deployed toward AI initiatives, no empirical framework currently exists for benchmarking where a firm stands relative to competitors in AI readiness and deployment, or for translating that position into…
This paper develops a simple model of the world supply chain to estimate the effects of sanctions that restrict the flow of inputs from one country to another. Such restrictions operate through changes in the weights of the global…
This paper examines how loss aversion affects wages offered by employers and accepted by job seekers. I introduce a behavioral search model with monopsonistic firms making wage offers to job seekers who experience steeper disutility from…
We develop a deep learning algorithm for constructing globally accurate approximations to functional rational expectations equilibria of dynamic stochastic economies in the sequence space. We use deep neural networks to parameterize key…
We introduce Delphos, a deep reinforcement learning framework for assisting the discrete choice model specification process. Delphos aims to support the modeller by providing automated, data-driven suggestions for utility specifications,…
How labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan's spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin…
Using rich Swedish administrative data, we apply causal machine learning methods to study how earnings losses after job displacement vary with observable characteristics that may be relevant for targeting policy interventions for workers.…
Scientists agree about the urgency of the problem of climate change. Most citizens, however, pay little attention to gradually increasing temperature levels. Growing numbers of natural disasters in the world might then play a fundamental…
A central challenge in financial economics is understanding how credit networks form under informational noise. We introduce the concept of topological capital, arguing that banks increasingly rely on topological certification, interpreting…
In June 2026, the UK government will set its carbon budget for the period 2038 to 2042, the seventh such carbon budget (CB7) since the Climate Change Act became law in 2008. For the first time, this carbon budget will be accompanied by a…
As large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as autonomous agents in markets and organizations, their behavior in strategic environments becomes economically consequential. We document that off-the-shelf LLM agents exhibit systematic…
Geopolitics is shaped by trade and borders. We develop a general-equilibrium model in which both are endogenously determined in a linear world. Their interaction rationalizes geopolitical outcomes that cannot be obtained when either trade…
Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are designed to disperse control, yet recent evidence shows that effective governance is often concentrated in a small number of participants. This note studies one simple mechanism behind that…
Almost all countries in the world require banks to report suspicious transactions to national authorities. The reports are known as suspicious transaction or activity reports (we use the former term) and are intended to help authorities…
Gallice and Monz\'on (2019) present a natural environment that sustains full co-operation in one-shot social dilemmas among a finite number of self-interested agents. They demonstrate that in a sequential public goods game, where agents…
We propose a semi-structural DSGE model for the Israeli economy, as a small open economy, which contains a financial friction in the household sector credit market. Such a friction is reflected in a positive relationship between households'…
The theory of thermal macroeconomics (TM) analyses economic phenomena within the mathematical framework of classical thermodynamics, using a set of axioms that apply to the purely macroscopic aspects of an economy [CM]. The theory shows…
Extensive empirical studies show that the long distribution tail of travel time and the corresponding unexpected delay can have much more serious consequences than expected or moderate delay. However, the unexpected delay due to the…