Related papers: The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum

Given a spectrally negative L\'evy process, we predict, in a $L_1$ sense, the last passage time of the process below zero before an independent exponential time. This optimal prediction problem generalises Baurdoux and Pedraza (2020) where…

We analyze an irreversible investment decision for a project which yields a flow of future operating profits given by a geometric Brownian motion with unknown drift. In contrast to similar optimal stopping problems with incomplete…

Given a spectrally negative L\'evy process $X$ drifting to infinity, (inspired on the early ideas of Shiryaev (2002)) we are interested in finding a stopping time that minimises the $L^p$ distance ($p>1$) with $g$, the last time $X$ is…

We derive P(M,t_m), the joint probability density of the maximum M and the time t_m at which this maximum is achieved for a class of constrained Brownian motions. In particular, we provide explicit results for excursions, meanders and…

It is shown that the ratio between the expected diameter of an L2-bounded martingale and the standard deviation of its last term cannot exceed sqrt(3). Moreover, a one-parameter family of stopping times on standard Brownian Motion is…

We make a rigorous analysis of the existence and characterization of the free boundary related to the optimal stopping problem that maximizes the mean of an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck bridge. The result includes the Brownian bridge problem as a…

This paper deals with optimal prediction in a regime-switching model driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. We extend existing results for geometric Brownian motion by deriving optimal stopping strategies that depend on the current…

It is known from Bramson (1983) that the maximum of branching Brownian motion at time $t$ is asymptotically around an explicit function $m_t$, which involves a first ballistic order and a logarithmic correction. In this paper, we give an…

We investigate a class of optimal stopping problems arising in, for example, studies considering the timing of an irreversible investment when the underlying follows a skew Brownian motion. Our results indicate that the local directional…

Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in three dimensions, whose two spatial coordinates are standard Brownian motions with zero drift, and the remaining (unknown) spatial coordinate is a standard Brownian motion with a non-zero drift.…

Let $X=(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a transient diffusion process in $(0,\infty)$ with the diffusion coefficient $\sigma>0$ and the scale function $L$ such that $X_t\rightarrow\infty$ as $t\rightarrow \infty$, let $I_t$ denote its running minimum for…

The multiple disorder problem seeks to determine a sequence of stopping times which are as close as possible to the unknown times of disorders at which the observation process changes its probability characteristics. We derive closed form…

The paper deals with the regression model $X_t = \theta t + B_t$, $t\in[0, T ]$, where $B=\{B_t, t\geq 0\}$ is a centered Gaussian process with stationary increments. We study the estimation of the unknown parameter $\theta$ and establish…

We consider a vibrating string that is fixed at one end with Neumann control action at the other end. We investigate the optimal control problem of steering this system from given initial data to rest, in time T , by minimizing an objective…

We consider the last zero crossing time $T_{\mu,t}$ of a Brownian motion, with drift $\mu \neq 0$ in the time interval $[0, t]$. We prove the large deviation principle of $\{T_{\mu \sqrt r t} : r > 0 \}$ as $r$ tends to infinity. Moreover,…

Define the incremental fractional Brownian field $B_{H}(s+\tau)-B_{H}(s), H\in (0,1)$, where $B_{H}(s)$ is a standard fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in(0,1)$. In this paper we derive the exact asymptotic behaviour of the…

We develop a theory of optimal stopping problems under G-expectation framework. We first define a new kind of random times, called G-stopping times, which is suitable for this problem. For the discrete time case with finite horizon, the…

We consider the problem of optimal estimation of the value of a vector parameter $\thetavector=(\theta_0,\ldots,\theta_n)^{\top}$ of the drift term in a fractional Brownian motion represented by the finite sum…

We provide a solution to the problem of optimal transport by Brownian martingales in general dimensions whenever the transport cost satisfies certain subharmonic properties in the target variable, as well as a stochastic version of the…

We consider optimal transport problems where the cost is optimized over controlled dynamics and the end time is free. Unlike the classical setting, the search for optimal transport plans also requires the identification of optimal "stopping…