Related papers: The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum
Let $B=\{ B_{t}\} _{t\ge 0}$ be a one-dimensional standard Brownian motion. As an application of a recent result of ours on exponential functionals of Brownian motion, we show in this paper that, for every fixed $t>0$, the process given by…
Our model consists of a Brownian particle $X$ moving in $\mathbb{R}$, where a Poissonian field of moving traps is present. Each trap is a ball with constant radius, centered at a trap point, and each trap point moves under a Brownian motion…
We show an intimate connection between solutions of the Skorokhod Embedding Problem which are given as the first hitting time of a barrier and the concept of shadows in martingale optimal transport. More precisely, we show that a solution…
The classical inverse first passage time problem asks whether, for a Brownian motion $(B_t)_{t\geq 0}$ and a positive random variable $\xi$, there exists a barrier $b:\mathbb{R}_+\to\mathbb{R}$ such that $\mathbb{P}\{B_s>b(s), 0\leq s \leq…
We propose a recursive algorithm for the numerical computation of the optimal value function $\inf_{t\le\tau\le T} E \Big[\sup_{0\le s\le T } Y_s / Y_{\tau} \big| {\cal F}_t\Big]$ over the stopping times $\tau$ with respect to the…
We study the maximum of a Brownian motion with a parabolic drift; this is a random variable that often occurs as a limit of the maximum of discrete processes whose expectations have a maximum at an interior point. We give series expansions…
We study the problem of stopping a Brownian motion at a given distribution $\nu$ while optimizing a reward function that depends on the (possibly randomized) stopping time and the Brownian motion. Our first result establishes that the set…
This note considers a variation of the full-information secretary problem where the random variables to be observed are independent and identically distributed. Consider $X_1,\dots,X_n$ to be an independent sequence of random variables, let…
Given a survival distribution on the positive half-axis and a Brownian motion, a solution of the inverse first-passage problem consists of a boundary so that the first passage time over the boundary has the given distribution. We show that…
We consider the problem of optimally stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning time so as to maximise the value of the process upon stopping. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we assume the stopper has a general continuous prior and is…
We adapt ideas and concepts developed in optimal transport (and its martingale variant) to give a geometric description of optimal stopping times of Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the distribution of the stopping time is a…
We address a general optimal switching problem over finite horizon for a stochastic system described by a differential equation driven by Brownian motion. The main novelty is the fact that we allow for infinitely many modes (or regimes,…
We study the problem of maximizing the expected lifetime of drift diffusion in a bounded domain. More formally, we consider the PDE \[ - \Delta u + b(x) \cdot \nabla u = 1 \qquad \mbox{in}~\Omega\] subject to Dirichlet boundary conditions…
We investigate an optimal stopping problem for the expected value of a discounted payoff on a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion under two constraints on the possible stopping times: only at exogenous random times and only during a…
We formulate an optimal switching problem when the underlying filtration is generated by a marked point process and a Brownian motion. Each mode is characterized by a different compensator for the point process, and thus by a different…
This paper considers a pair $(\mathbb{F},\tau)$, where $\mathbb{F}$ is a filtration representing the "public" flow of information which is available to all agents overtime, and $\tau$ is a random time which might not be an…
For classical finite time horizon stopping problems driven by a Brownian motion \[V(t,x) = \sup_{t\leq\tau\leq0}E_{(t,x)}[g(\tau,W_{\tau})],\] we derive a new class of Fredholm type integral equations for the stopping set. For large problem…
We formulate and solve a variant of the quickest detection problem which features false negatives. A standard Brownian motion acquires a drift at an independent exponential random time which is not directly observable. Based on the…
Brownian motion is the only random process which is Gaussian, stationary and Markovian. Dropping the Markovian property, i.e. allowing for memory, one obtains a class of processes called fractional Brownian motion, indexed by the Hurst…
In this paper we develop a deep learning method for optimal stopping problems which directly learns the optimal stopping rule from Monte Carlo samples. As such, it is broadly applicable in situations where the underlying randomness can…