Related papers: The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum

A novel quickest detection setting is proposed which is a generalization of the well-known Bayesian change-point detection model. Suppose \{(X_i,Y_i)\}_{i\geq 1} is a sequence of pairs of random variables, and that S is a stopping time with…

In classical optimal transport, the contributions of Benamou$-$Brenier and McCann regarding the time-dependent version of the problem are cornerstones of the field and form the basis for a variety of applications in other mathematical…

We study a finite-horizon stochastic control criterion for non-convex optimization in which Brownian exploration is balanced against a quadratic control cost. Rather than emphasizing the classical Hopf--Cole representation, we isolate the…

We study the problem of parametric estimation for continuously observed stochastic differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion. Under some assumptions on drift and diffusion coefficients, we construct maximum likelihood…

We consider an irreducible pair $\mu \leq_c \nu$ of probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$ in convex order. In arXiv:2306.11019, Backhoff, Beiglb\"ock, Schachermayer and Tschiderer have shown that the Stretched Brownian Motion from $\mu$ to…

Given a Wiener process with unknown and unobservable drift, we try to estimate this drift as effectively but also as quickly as possible, in the presence of a quadratic penalty for the estimation error and of a fixed, positive cost per unit…

We study a stochastic recursive optimal control problem in which the cost functional is described by the solution of a backward stochastic differential equation driven by G-Brownian motion. Some of the economic and financial optimization…

This paper deals with the problems of consistence and strong consistence of the maximum likelihood estimators of the mean and variance of the drift fractional Brownian motions observed at discrete time instants. A central limit theorem for…

We provide a characterization of an optimal stopping time for a class of finite horizon time-inconsistent optimal stopping problems (OSPs) of mean-field type, adapted to the Brownian filtration, including those related to mean-field…

We study the problem of optimal inside control of a stochastic Volterra equation driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure. We prove a sufficient and a necessary maximum principle for the optimal control when the trader has…

We consider a standard binary branching Brownian motion on the real line. It is known that the maximal position $M_t$ among all particles alive at time $t$, shifted by $m_t = \sqrt{2} t - \frac{3}{2\sqrt{2}} \log t$ converges in law to a…

We prove a property of Brownian bridges whose certain time-equidistant sequences of points are pairwise coupled by an interaction. Roughly saying, if the total time span $t$ of the bridge tends to infinity while the distance of its end…

We consider the optimal prediction problem of stopping a spectrally negative L\'evy process as close as possible to a given distance $b \geq 0$ from its ultimate supremum, under a squared error penalty function. Under some mild conditions,…

Solving optimal control problems to determine a stabilizing controller involves a significant computational effort. Time-varying optimal control provides a remedy by designing a tracking system, given as an ordinary differential equation,…

The Skorokhod embedding problem aims to represent a given probability measure on the real line as the distribution of Brownian motion stopped at a chosen stopping time. In this paper, we consider an extension of the optimal Skorokhod…

In this paper, we study the solvability of a class of multi-dimensional forward backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) with oblique reflection and unbounded stopping time. Under some mild assumptions on the coefficients in such…

Let $(B(t))_{t\in \Theta}$ with $\Theta={\mathbb Z}$ or $\Theta={\mathbb R}$ be a wide sense stationary process with discrete or continuous time. The classical linear prediction problem consists of finding an element in…

In this paper we study the integral of the supremum process of standard Brownian motion. We present an explicit formula for the moments of the integral (or area) A(T), covered by the process in the time interval [0,T]. The Laplace transform…

Let $(S_t)_{t\geq 0}$ be the running maximum of a standard Brownian motion $(B_t)_{t\geq 0}$ and $T_m:=\inf\{t; \, mS_t<t\},\, m>0$. In this note we calculate the joint distribution of $T_m$ and $B_{T_m}$. The motivation for our work comes…

In this paper we prove a large deviation principle for the empirical drift of a one-dimensional Brownian motion with self-repellence called the Edwards model. Our results extend earlier work in which a law of large numbers, respectively, a…