Related papers: The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum

We study a class of nonlinear nonparametric inverse problems. Specifically, we propose a nonparametric estimator of the dynamics of a monotonically increasing trajectory defined on a finite time interval. Under suitable regularity…

In the first part of this paper, we study RBSDEs in the case where the filtration is not quasi-left continuous and the lower obstacle is given by a predictable process. We prove the existence and uniqueness by using some results of optimal…

We present a probabilistic approach to the obstacle problem for for the $p$-Laplace operator. The solutions are approximated by running processes determined by tug-of-war games plus noise, and letting the step size go to zero, not unlike…

We study an optimal stopping problem with an unbounded, time-dependent and discontinuous reward function. This problem is motivated by the pricing of a variable annuity contract with guaranteed minimum maturity benefit, under the assumption…

We present a novel theoretical result on estimation of local time and occupation time measure of an {\alpha}-stable L\'evy process with {\alpha} in (1, 2). Our approach is based upon computing the conditional expectation of the desired…

We consider a stochastic transportation problem between two prescribed probability distributions (a source and a target) over processes with general drift dependence and with free end times. First, and in order to establish a dual…

In a classical problem for the stopping of a diffusion process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$, where the goal is to maximise the expected discounted value of a function of the stopped process ${\mathbb E}^x[e^{-\beta \tau}g(X_\tau)]$, maximisation…

In the racetrack acceleration model, proposed by Martin Gardner in 1973, each step consists of changing the position of the vehicle by a vector in $\mathbb{Z}^2$, with the constraints that two consecutive vectors differ by at most one unit…

Let $W(t), t\ge 0$ be standard Brownian motion. We study the size of the time intervals $I$ which are admissible for the long range of slow increase, namely given a real $z>0$, $$ \sup_{t\in I}{|W(t)|\over \sqrt t} \le z, $$ and we estimate…

We investigate the impact of Knightian uncertainty on the optimal timing policy of an ambiguity averse decision maker in the case where the underlying factor dynamics follow a multidimensional Brownian motion and the exercise payoff depends…

Last passage times arise in a number of areas of applied probability, including risk theory and degradation models. Such times are obviously not stopping times since they depend on the whole path of the underlying process. We consider the…

We define a class of reflected backward stochastic differential equation (RBSDE) driven by a marked point process (MPP) and a Brownian motion, where the solution is constrained to stay above a given c\`adl\`ag process. The MPP is only…

Standard Markovian optimal stopping problems are consistent in the sense that the first entrance time into the stopping set is optimal for each initial state of the process. Clearly, the usual concept of optimality cannot in a…

In this paper we study strongly robust optimal control problems under volatility uncertainty. In the $G$-framework we adapt the stochastic maximum principle to find necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a strongly robust…

We study the optimal stopping time problem $v(S)={\rm ess}\sup_{\theta \geq S} E[\phi(\theta)|\mathcal {F}_S]$, for any stopping time $S$, where the reward is given by a family $(\phi(\theta),\theta\in\mathcal{T}_0)$ \emph{of non negative…

For systems in an externally controllable time-dependent potential, the optimal protocol minimizes the mean work spent in a finite-time transition between two given equilibrium states. For overdamped dynamics which ignores inertia effects,…

We study a space-time Brownian motion with drift B(t)=(t_0+t,y_0+W(t)+t) killed at the moving boundary of the cone {(t,x):0<x<t}. This article determines the parabolic Martin boundary and all harmonic functions associated with this process.…

The objective of this work is to study continuous-time Markov decision processes on a general Borel state space with both impulsive and continuous controls for the infinite-time horizon discounted cost. The continuous-time controlled…

A multi-source quickest detection problem is considered. Assume there are two independent Poisson processes $X^{1}$ and $X^{2}$ with disorder times $\theta_{1}$ and $\theta_{2}$, respectively; that is, the intensities of $X^1$ and $X^2$…

We consider the discrete time infinite horizon average reward restless markovian bandit (RMAB) problem. We propose a \emph{model predictive control} based non-stationary policy with a rolling computational horizon $\tau$. At each time-slot,…