Related papers: The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum
We provide a new probabilistic proof of the connection between Rost's solution of the Skorokhod embedding problem and a suitable family of optimal stopping problems for Brownian motion with finite time-horizon. In particular we use…
We calculate analytically the probability density $P(t_m)$ of the time $t_m$ at which a continuous-time Brownian motion (with and without drift) attains its maximum before passing through the origin for the first time. We also compute the…
We study the radius $R_T$ of a self-repellent fractional Brownian motion $\left\{B^H_t\right\}_{0\le t\le T}$ taking values in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our sharpest result is for $d=1$, where we find that with high probability, \begin{equation*} R_T…
We introduce a resetting Brownian bridge as a simple model to study search processes where the total search time $t_f$ is finite and the searcher returns to its starting point at $t_f$. This is simply a Brownian motion with a Poissonian…
We develop a numerical method for the martingale analogue of the Benamou--Brenier optimal transport problem, which seeks a martingale interpolating two prescribed marginals which is closest to the Brownian motion. Recent contributions have…
We derive the first-passage-time statistics of a Brownian motion driven by an exponential time-dependent drift up to a threshold. This process corresponds to the signal integration in a simple neuronal model supplemented with an…
We develop a class of pathwise inequalities of the form $H(B_t)\ge M_t+F(L_t)$, where $B_t$ is Brownian motion, $L_t$ its local time at zero and $M_t$ a local martingale. The concrete nature of the representation makes the inequality useful…
The Garman-Klass unbiased estimator of the variance per unit time of a zero-drift Brownian Motion B, based on the usual financial data that reports for time windows of equal length the open (OPEN), minimum (MIN), maximum (MAX) and close…
Let $X$ be a one-dimensional diffusion and let $g\colon[0,T]\times\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ be a payoff function depending on time and the value of $X$. The paper analyzes the inverse optimal stopping problem of finding a time-dependent…
We calculate the probability $p_c$ that the maximum of a reflected Brownian motion $U$ is achieved on a complete excursion, i.e. $p_c:=P\big(\overline{U}(t)=U^*(t)\big)$ where $\overline{U}(t)$ (respectively $U^*(t)$) is the maximum of the…
The basic problem of optimal transportation consists in minimizing the expected costs $\mathbb {E}[c(X_1,X_2)]$ by varying the joint distribution $(X_1,X_2)$ where the marginal distributions of the random variables $X_1$ and $X_2$ are…
We present an analytical method to estimate the continuous-time collision probability of motion plans for autonomous agents with linear controlled Ito dynamics. Motion plans generated by planning algorithms cannot be perfectly executed by…
A singular stochastic control problem with state constraints in two-dimensions is studied. We show that the value function is $C^1$ and its directional derivatives are the value functions of certain optimal stopping problems. Guided by the…
Let $B = (B_t)_{t \in {\bf R}}$ be a symmetric Brownian motion, i.e. $(B_t)_{t \in {\bf R}_+}$ and $(B_{-t})_{t \in {\bf R}_+}$ are independent Brownian motions starting at $0$. Given $a \ge b>0$, we describe the law of the random set…
Let $B=(B_t)_{t\in {\mathbb{R}}}$ be a two-sided standard Brownian motion. An unbiased shift of $B$ is a random time $T$, which is a measurable function of $B$, such that $(B_{T+t}-B_T)_{t\in {\mathbb{R}}}$ is a Brownian motion independent…
We construct a Bayesian sequential test of two simple hypotheses about the value of the unobservable drift coefficient of a Brownian motion, with a possibility to change the initial decision at subsequent moments of time for some penalty.…
We study an optimal investment problem under contagion risk in a financial model subject to multiple jumps and defaults. The global market information is formulated as a progressive enlargement of a default-free Brownian filtration, and the…
Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in two or more dimensions, whose coordinate processes are standard Brownian motions with zero drift initially, and then at some random/unobservable time, one of the coordinate processes gets a…
In this paper we address the question of finding the point which maximizes the $p$-th moment of the exit time of planar Brownian motion from a given domain. We present a geometrical method of excluding parts of the domain from consideration…
We propose an optimization strategy to control the dynamics of a stochastic system transferred from one thermal equilibrium to another and apply it experimentally to a Brownian particle in an optical trap under compression. Based on a…