Related papers: The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum

Given a standard Brownian motion $B^{\mu}=(B_t^{\mu})_{0\le t\le T}$ with drift $\mu \in IR$ and letting $g$ denote the last zero of $B^{\mu}$ before $T$, we consider the optimal prediction problem V_*=\inf_{0\le \tau \le T}\mathsf…

Assuming that the stock price $Z=(Z_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ follows a geometric Brownian motion with drift $\mu\in\mathbb{R}$ and volatility $\sigma>0$, and letting $M_t=\max_{0\leq s\leq t}Z_s$ for $t\in[0,T]$, we consider the optimal…

Let $(B_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ be either a Bernoulli random walk or a Brownian motion with drift, and let $M_t:=\max\{B_s: 0\leq s\leq t\}$, $0\leq t\leq T$. This paper solves the general optimal prediction problem \sup_{0\leq\tau\leq…

Given an initial (resp., terminal) probability measure $\mu$ (resp., $\nu$) on $\mathbb{R}^d$, we characterize those optimal stopping times $\tau$ that maximize or minimize the functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_\tau|^{\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$,…

Given two probability measures $\mu, \nu$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, in subharmonic order, we describe optimal stopping times $\tau$ that maximize/minimize the cost functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_\tau|^{\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$, where $(B_t)_t$ is…

We consider optimal stopping problems for a Brownian motion and a geometric Brownian motion with a "disorder", assuming that the moment of a disorder is uniformly distributed on a finite interval. Optimal stopping rules are found as the…

Given a stochastic state process $(X_t)_t$ and a real-valued submartingale cost process $(S_t)_t$, we characterize optimal stopping times $\tau$ that minimize the expectation of $S_\tau$ while realizing given initial and target…

We study solutions of a class of one-dimensional continuous reflected backward stochastic Volterra integral equations driven by Brownian motion, where the reflection keeps the solution above a given stochastic process (lower obstacle). We…

We solve an optimal stopping problem where the underlying diffusion is Brownian motion on $\bf R$ with a positive drift changing at zero. It is assumed that the drift $\mu_1$ on the negative side is smaller than the drift $\mu_2$ on the…

We use probabilistic methods to characterise time dependent optimal stopping boundaries in a problem of multiple optimal stopping on a finite time horizon. Motivated by financial applications we consider a payoff of immediate stopping of…

We model learning in a continuous-time Brownian setting where there is prior ambiguity. The associated model of preference values robustness and is time-consistent. It is applied to study optimal learning when the choice between actions can…

Given a stable L\'{e}vy process $X=(X_t)_{0\le t\le T}$ of index $\alpha\in(1,2)$ with no negative jumps, and letting $S_t=\sup_{0\le s\le t}X_s$ denote its running supremum for $t\in [0,T]$, we consider the optimal prediction problem…

We consider a Brownian motion (BM) $x(\tau)$ and its maximal value $x_{\max} = \max_{0 \leq \tau \leq t} x(\tau)$ on a fixed time interval $[0,t]$. We study functionals of the maximum of the BM, of the form ${\cal O}_{\max}(t)=\int_0^t\,…

We study a classical Bayesian statistics problem of sequentially testing the sign of the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion with the $0$-$1$ loss function and a constant cost of observation per unit of time for general prior…

We solve optimal stopping problems for an oscillating Brownian motion, i.e. a diffusion with positive piecewise constant volatility changing at the point $x=0$. Let $\sigma_1$ and $\sigma_2$ denote the volatilities on the negative and…

We investigate optimal stopping problems for systems driven by the Brownian sheet. Our analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part we derive explicit solutions to two optimal stopping problems for the exponentially discounted…

We solve the problem of optimal stopping of a Brownian motion subject to the constraint that the stopping time's distribution is a given measure consisting of finitely-many atoms. In particular, we show that this problem can be converted to…

We consider the optimal stopping problem $v^{(\eps)}:=\sup_{\tau\in\mathcal{T}_{0,T}}\mathbb{E}B_{(\tau-\eps)^+}$ posed by Shiryaev at the International Conference on Advanced Stochastic Optimization Problems organized by the Steklov…

An unbiased shift of the two-sided Brownian motion $(B_t \colon t\in{\mathbb R})$ is a random time $T$ such that $(B_{T+t} \colon t\in{\mathbb R})$ is still a two-sided Brownian motion. Given a pair $\mu, \nu$ of orthogonal probability…

In this paper we study the problem of stopping a Brownian bridge $X$ in order to maximise the expected value of an exponential gain function. In particular, we solve the stopping problem $$\sup_{0\le \tau\le…