Related papers: The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum

Fractional Brownian motion is a non-Markovian Gaussian process $X_t$, indexed by the Hurst exponent $H$. It generalises standard Brownian motion (corresponding to $H=1/2$). We study the probability distribution of the maximum $m$ of the…

Let $\tau$ be the first hitting time of the point 1 by the geometric Brownian motion $X(t)= x \exp(B(t)-2\mu t)$ with drift $\mu \geq 0$ starting from $x>1$. Here $B(t)$ is the Brownian motion starting from 0 with $E^0 B^2(t) = 2t$. We…

An unconventional approach for optimal stopping under model ambiguity is introduced. Besides ambiguity itself, we take into account how ambiguity-averse an agent is. This inclusion of ambiguity attitude, via an $\alpha$-maxmin nonlinear…

We formulate an optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion where the probability scale is distorted by a general nonlinear function. The problem is inherently time inconsistent due to the Choquet integration involved. We…

Let X_t, 0<=t<=T be a one-dimensional stochastic process with independent and stationary increments. This paper considers the problem of stopping the process X_t "as close as possible" to its eventual supremum M_T:=sup{X_t: 0<=t<=T}, when…

We study optimal double stopping problems driven by a Brownian bridge. The objective is to maximize the expected spread between the payoffs achieved at the two stopping times. We study several cases where the solutions can be solved…

In this article we study a problem related to the first passage and inverse first passage time problems for Brownian motions originally formulated by Jackson, Kreinin and Zhang (2009). Specifically, define $\tau_X = \inf\{t>0:W_t + X \le…

We present a constructive probabilistic proof of the fact that if $B=(B_t)_{t\ge0}$ is standard Brownian motion started at $0$, and $\mu$ is a given probability measure on $\mathbb{R}$ such that $\mu(\{0\})=0$, then there exists a unique…

We study problems of optimal boundary control with systems governed by linear hyperbolic partial differential equations. The objective function is quadratic and given by an integral over the finite time interval $(0,\, T)$ that depends on…

This work examines the problem of sequential detection of a change in the drift of a Brownian motion in the case of two-sided alternatives. Applications to real life situations in which two-sided changes can occur are discussed.…

In this paper we consider stochastic optimization problems for an ambiguity averse decision maker who is uncertain about the parameters of the underlying process. In a first part we consider problems of optimal stopping under drift…

We investigate the first-passage properties and extreme-value statistics of an overdamped Brownian particle confined by an external linear potential $V(x)=\mu |x-x_0|$, where $\mu>0$ is the strength of the potential and $x_0>0$ is the…

We solve two stochastic control problems in which a player tries to minimize or maximize the exit time from an interval of a Brownian particle, by controlling its drift. The player can change from one drift to another but is subject to a…

We consider a pair $(X,Y)$ of stochastic processes satisfying the equation $dX=a(X)Y\,dB$ driven by a Brownian motion and study the monotonicity and continuity in $y$ of the value function $v(x,y)=\sup_{\tau}E_{x,y}[e^{-q\tau}g(X_{\tau})]$,…

We study a model of $ N $ mutually repellent Brownian motions under confinement to stay in some bounded region of space. Our model is defined in terms of a transformed path measure under a trap Hamiltonian, which prevents the motions from…

In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential…

Motivated by a problem posed by Aldous, our goal is to find the maximal-entropy win-martingale: In a sports game between two teams, the chance the home team wins is initially $x_0 \in (0,1)$ and finally 0 or 1. As an idealization we take a…

In this paper, we present a discrete-type approximation scheme to solve continuous-time optimal stopping problems based on fully non-Markovian continuous processes adapted to the Brownian motion filtration. The approximations satisfy…

In this paper, we present a Longstaff-Schwartz-type algorithm for optimal stopping time problems based on the Brownian motion filtration. The algorithm is based on Le\~ao, Ohashi and Russo and, in contrast to previous works, our methodology…

We consider the problem of finding a stopping time that minimises the $L^1$-distance to $\theta$, the time at which a L\'evy process attains its ultimate supremum. This problem was studied in [12] for a Brownian motion with drift and a…