相关论文: The Fermi's Bayes Theorem

Stochastic independence has a complex status in probability theory. It is not part of the definition of a probability measure, but it is nonetheless an essential property for the mathematical development of this theory. Bayesian decision…

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly…

In 1755 Thomas Bayes expressed an interest in the problem of combining repeated measurements of the location of a star. Bayes described a tandem set-up of a ball thrown on a table, followed by repeated throws of a second ball. Bayes' table…

An extended analysis is given of the program, originally suggested by Deutsch, of solving the probability problem in the Everett interpretation by means of decision theory. Deutsch's own proof is discussed, and alternatives are presented…

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…

The probabilistic predictions of quantum theory are conventionally obtained from a special probabilistic axiom. But that is unnecessary because all the practical consequences of such predictions follow from the remaining, non-probabilistic,…

Bayesian statistics is an integral part of contemporary applied science. bayesics provides a single framework, unified in syntax and output, for performing the most commonly used statistical procedures, ranging from one- and two-sample…

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical…

This is a writeup of lectures on "statistics" that have evolved from the initial version for the 2009 Hadron Collider Physics Summer School at CERN to versions for other venues and, most recently, for the African School of Fundamental…

We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

The well-known Bayes theorem assumes that a posterior distribution is a probability distribution. However, the posterior distribution may no longer be a probability distribution if an improper prior distribution (non-probability measure)…

Inferring the value of a property of a large stochastic system is a difficult task when the number of samples is insufficient to reliably estimate the probability distribution. The Bayesian estimator of the property of interest requires the…

The present article is the reply to the discussion of our earlier "Not only defended but also applied" (arXiv:1006.5366, to appear in The American Statistician) that arose from our memory of a particularly intemperate anti-Bayesian…

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

Some scientific research questions ask to guide decisions and others do not. By their nature frequentist hypothesis-tests yield a dichotomous test decision as result, rendering them rather inappropriate for latter types of research…

A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first…

Favaro, Lijoi, and Pruenster (2012, Biometrics, 68, 1188--1196) derive a novel Bayesian nonparametric estimator of the probability of detecting at the $(n+m+1)$th observation a species already observed with any given frequency in an…

Similarities between the non-deterministic nature of quantum theory and the unpredictable patterns of human cognition and decision making have been observed and commented on many times since the invention of Quantum Mechanics in the first…