相关论文: The Fermi's Bayes Theorem

This article is geared towards theorists interested in estimating parameters of their theoretical models, and computing their own limits using available experimental data and elementary Mathematica code. The examples given can be useful…

Knowledge is a central concept within both Bayesian inference and the mathematical and philosophical program of logic and semiotics initiated by Charles Sanders Peirce and further developed by George Spencer-Brown and Louis Kauffman. The…

Brains perform decision-making by Bayes theorem. The theorem quantifies events as probabilities and, based on probability rules, renders the decisions. Learning from this, Bayes theorem can be applied to enable efficient user-scene…

The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical theory that can be used as a foundation for statistics that include improper priors. This theory includes improper laws in the initial axioms and has in particular Bayes theorem as a…

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

The hunt for exotic properties in flowing systems is a popular and active field of study, and has recently gained renewed attention through claims such as a ``segmented Fermi surface'' in a superconducting system that hosts steady superflow…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework that models distributed inference for a group of agents interacting over a social network. In this framework, each agent iteratively forms and communicates beliefs about an unknown…

The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more…

I show how the Fermi and Bose pressures in quantum systems, identified in standard discussions through the use of thermodynamic analogies, can be derived directly in terms of the flow of momentum across a surface by using the quantum…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

It has been argued by Daryl Bem in his 2011 paper that 8 out of 9 experiments yielded statistically significant results in favour of the psi effect. It is pointed out in this short communication that many of the results in the above…

After making some general remarks, I consider two examples that illustrate the use of Bayesian Probability Theory. The first is a simple one, the physicist's favorite "toy," that provides a forum for a discussion of the key conceptual issue…

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

In classical physics, probabilistic or statistical knowledge has been always related to ignorance or inaccurate subjective knowledge about an actual state of affairs. This idea has been extended to quantum mechanics through a completely…

People act upon their desires, but often, also act in adherence to implicit social norms. How do people infer these unstated social norms from others' behavior, especially in novel social contexts? We propose that laypeople have intuitive…

Bayesian inference is used to estimate continuous parameter values given measured data in many fields of science. The method relies on conditional probability densities to describe information about both data and parameters, yet the notion…

In quantum Bayesian inference problems, any conclusions drawn from a finite number of measurements depend not only on the outcomes of the measurements but also on a prior. Here we show that, in general, the prior remains important even in…

In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…