相关论文: Why does the Standard GARCH(1,1) model work well?

Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…

Many macroeconomic time series are characterised by nonlinearity both in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance and, in practice, it is important to investigate separately these two aspects. Here we address the issue of…

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

The estimation of multivariate GARCH time series models is a difficult task mainly due to the significant overparameterization exhibited by the problem and usually referred to as the "curse of dimensionality". For example, in the case of…

The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian model comparison, based on the posterior probabilities and posterior odds ratios, in testing the explanatory power of the set of competing GARCH (ang. Generalised Autoregressive…

High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series,…

This paper introduces an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) model based on the novel geometric distribution and discusses some of its properties. The parameter estimation problem of the models…

We propose a first-order autoregressive (i.e. AR(1)) model for dynamic network processes in which edges change over time while nodes remain unchanged. The model depicts the dynamic changes explicitly. It also facilitates simple and…

In this article, we introduce and study a one sided tempered stable first order autoregressive model called TAR(1). Under the assumption of stationarity of the model, the marginal probability density function of the error term is found. It…

For many financial applications, it is important to have reliable and tractable models for the behavior of assets and indexes, for example in risk evaluation. A successful approach is based on ARCH processes, which strike the right balance…

Large continuous-time Markov chains with exponentially small transition rates arise in modeling complex systems in physics, chemistry and biology. We propose a constructive graph-algorithmic approach to determine the sequence of critical…

We provide a closed-form estimator based on the VARMA representation for the unrestricted multivariate GARCH(1,1). We show that all parameters can be derived using basic linear algebra tools. We show that the estimator is consistent and…

In this contribution we are interested in proving that a given observation-driven model is identifiable. In the case of a GARCH(p, q) model, a simple sufficient condition has been established in [1] for showing the consistency of the…

There is a serious and long-standing restriction in the literature on heavy-tailed phenomena in that moment conditions, which are unrealistic, are almost always assumed in modelling such phenomena. Further, the issue of stability is often…

This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…

In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan-Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional…

Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…

We consider a class of M-estimators of the parameters of a GARCH (p,q) model. These estimators involve score functions and, for adequate choices of the score functions, are asymptotically normal under milder moment assumptions than the…

Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…

This paper develops the limit theory of the GARCH(1,1) process that moderately deviates from IGARCH process towards both stationary and explosive regimes. The GARCH(1,1) process is defined by equations $u_t = \sigma_t \varepsilon_t$,…