相关论文: A note on Delta ln L = -1/2 Errors

We revisit the outlier hypothesis testing framework of Li \emph{et al.} (TIT 2014) and derive fundamental limits for the optimal test under the generalized Neyman-Pearson criterion. In outlier hypothesis testing, one is given multiple…

Sequential change-point detection in non-Gaussian stochastic processes is challenging because the underlying densities are rarely known in real time. Classical parametric procedures such as CUSUM lose optimality under distributional…

Dose-finding studies in oncology often include an up-and-down dose transition rule that assigns a dose to each cohort of patients based on accumulating data on dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) events. In making a dose transition decision, a key…

In this talk we summarize main results of a recent determination of the polarized deeply inelastic parton distributions to NLO from the world data. In the analysis the LO and NLO parton densities and their $1\sigma$ statistical errors were…

We consider fits to two or more datasets for which results from the sa me experiment share a common systematic uncertainty in addition to their individ ual statistical errors. This is important in extracting the maximum information from a…

Expected coverage and expected length of 90% upper and lower limit and 68.27% central intervals are plotted as functions of the true signal for various values of expected background. Results for several objective priors are shown, and…

The new Belle phi_3/gamma measurement arXiv:hep-ex/0604054, based on Dalitz analysis of D -> Kshort pi+ pi- in B+- -> D(*) K(*)+- decays, uses likelihood ratio ordering to set confidence intervals in phi_3 and the r,delta parameters. This…

We consider the general branching random walk under minimal assumptions, which in particular guarantee that the empirical particle distribution admits an almost sure central limit theorem. For such a process, we study the large time decay…

We consider interval estimation of the difference between two binomial proportions. Several methods of constructing such an interval are known. Unfortunately those confidence intervals have poor coverage probability: it is significantly…

The non-parametric bootstrap method is used to evaluate the uncertainties of two $\alpha$ decay formulas, the universal decay law (UDL) and the new Geiger-Nuttall law (NGNL). Such a method can simultaneously obtain the uncertainty of each…

Well-recommended methods of forming `confidence intervals' for a binomial proportion give interval estimates that do not actually meet the definition of a confidence interval, in that their coverages are sometimes lower than the nominal…

We propose new goodness-of-fit tests for the Poisson distribution. The testing procedure entails fitting a weighted Poisson distribution, which has the Poisson as a special case, to observed data. Based on sample data, we calculate an…

In the hypothesis testing framework, p-value is often computed to determine rejection of the null hypothesis or not. On the other hand, Bayesian approaches typically compute the posterior probability of the null hypothesis to evaluate its…

We prove a central limit theorem for $\log|\zeta(1/2+it)|$ with respect to the measure $|\zeta^{(m)}(1/2+it)|^{2k}dt$ ($k,m\in\mathbb N$), assuming RH and the asymptotic formula for twisted and shifted integral moments of zeta. Under the…

The lifetime of the Bs0 meson is measured using the semileptonic decay Bs0 --> Ds- l+ nu X. The data sample consists of about 110 pb^-1 of pp= collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV collected by the CDF detector at Fermilab. Four different Ds-…

Particle physics experiments use likelihood ratio tests extensively to compare hypotheses and to construct confidence intervals. Often, the null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic is approximated by a $\chi^2$ distribution,…

Recent advances in molecular simulations allow the evaluation of previously unattainable observables, such as rate constants for protein folding. However, these calculations are usually computationally expensive and even significant…

Motivated by the celebrated Beck-Fiala conjecture, we consider the random setting where there are $n$ elements and $m$ sets and each element lies in $t$ randomly chosen sets. In this setting, Ezra and Lovett showed an $O((t \log t)^{1/2})$…

In recent work, Fyodorov and Keating conjectured the maximum size of $|\zeta(1/2+it)|$ in a typical interval of length O(1) on the critical line. They did this by modelling the zeta function by the characteristic polynomial of a random…

We study exact confidence intervals and two-sided hypothesis tests for univariate parameters of stochastically increasing discrete distributions, such as the binomial and Poisson distributions. It is shown that several popular methods for…