相关论文: A note on the use of the word 'likelihood' in stat…

This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…

The language commonly used in human genetics can inadvertently pose problems for multiple reasons. Terms like "ancestry", "ethnicity", and other ways of grouping people can have complex, often poorly understood, or multiple meanings within…

The idea of fully accepting statements when the evidence has rendered them probable enough faces a number of difficulties. We leave the interpretation of probability largely open, but attempt to suggest a contextual approach to full belief.…

We consider whether the asymptotic distributions for the log-likelihood ratio test statistic are expected to be Gaussian or chi-squared. Two straightforward examples provide insight on the difference.

This paper presents duality between probability distributions and utility functions.

Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which…

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such…

Some things are impossible, but some things may be even more impossible than impossible. Levitating a feather using one's mind is impossible in our world, but fits into our intuitive theories of possible worlds, whereas levitating a feather…

How predictable a word is can be quantified in two ways: using human responses to the cloze task or using probabilities from language models (LMs).When used as predictors of processing effort, LM probabilities outperform probabilities…

We review the well known Bertrand paradoxes, and we first maintain that they do not point to any probabilistic inconsistency, but rather to the risks incurred with a careless use of the locution "at random". We claim then that these…

The relationship between three probability distributions and their maximizable entropy forms is discussed without postulating entropy property. For this purpose, the entropy I is defined as a measure of uncertainty of the probability…

This article aims at clarifying the language and practice of scientific experiment, mainly by hooking observability on calculability.

Combining measurements which have "theoretical uncertainties" is a delicate matter, due to an unclear statistical basis. We present an algorithm based on the notion that a theoretical uncertainty represents an estimate of bias.

The common practice for displaying error bars on distributions of numbers of events is confusing and can lead to incorrect conclusions. A proposal is made for a different style of presentation that more directly indicates the level of…

General thermodynamic theory of metastable states is used in this short note to try to understand better atmospheric instabilities. It is shown that not only cooling of a cloud can lead to rain, but heating also, especially when there are…

The concepts of variability and uncertainty, both epistemic and alleatory, came from experience and coexist with different connotations. Therefore this article attempts to express their relation by analytic means firstly setting sights on…

This paper discusses why P and NP are likely to be different. It analyses the essence of the concepts and points out that P and NP might be diverse by sheer definition. It also speculates that P and NP may be unequal due to natural laws.

We shall show in this paper that there are experiments which are Bernoulli trials with success probability p > 0.5, and which have the curious feature that it is possible to correctly predict the outcome with probability > p.

In this note, convergence of random variables will be revisited. We will give the answers to 5 questions among the 6 open questions introduced in (Convergence rates in the law of large numbers and new kinds of convergence of random…

Contingency and accident are two important notions in philosophy and philosophical logic. Their meanings are so close that they are mixed sometimes, in both everyday discourse and academic research. This indicates that it is necessary to…