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Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-11-07 Leila Mizrahi , Dario Jozinović

The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…

地球物理 · 物理学 2014-11-05 Antonella Peresan , Alexander Gorshkov , Alexander Soloviev , Giuliano F. Panza

The basic purpose of the paper is to draw the attention of researchers to new possibilities of differentiation of similar signals having different nature. One of examples of such kind of signals is presented by seismograms containing…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-07 Renat Yulmetyev , Fail Gafarov , Peter Hänggi , Raoul Nigmatullin , Shamil Kayumov

The seismic potential of any regional seismogenic area is analyzed in terms of the "open physical system" inflow - outflow energy balance model (Thanassoulas, 2008, Part - I). Following the magnitude determination method presented by…

地球物理 · 物理学 2008-07-10 C. Thanassoulas , V. Klentos

Endurance time method is a time history dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to predesigned intensifying excitations. This method provides a tool for response prediction that correlates structural responses to the intensity of…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2020-08-27 Homayoon E. Estekanchi , Mohammadreza Mashayekhi , Hassan Vafai , Goodarz Ahmadi , S. Ali Mirfarhadi , Mojtaba Harati

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to…

地球物理 · 物理学 2009-11-11 Alvaro Gonzalez , Miguel Vazquez-Prada , Javier B. Gomez , Amalio F. Pacheco

To the foundation of a principally new short-term forecasting method there has been laid down a theory of surrounding us world's creation and of physical vacuum as a result of interaction of byuons - discrete objects. The definition of the…

The statistical properties of time intervals between significant earthquakes are found to be described by the Zipf-Mandelbrot-Tsallis-type distribution.

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Sumiyoshi Abe , Norikazu Suzuki

We investigate the form and dynamics of shock-acoustic waves generated by earthquakes. We use the method for detecting and locating the sources of ionospheric impulsive disturbances, based on using data from a global network of receivers of…

地球物理 · 物理学 2015-06-26 E. L. Afraimovich , N. P. Perevalova , A. V. Plotnikov , A. M. Uralov

In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to research and development methods able to assess the seismic energy propagation on the territory. The seismic energy propagation is strongly related to the complexity of the source and…

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…

地球物理 · 物理学 2020-01-29 Miguel Vazquez-Prada , Alvaro Gonzalez , Javier B. Gomez , Amalio F. Pacheco

The search for correlations between secondary cosmic ray detection rates and seismic effects has long been a subject of investigation motivated by the hope of identifying a new precursor type that could feed a global early warning system…

Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…

地球物理 · 物理学 2015-06-26 Joern Davidsen , Peter Grassberger , Maya Paczuski

Foreshock events provide valuable insight to predict imminent major earthquakes. However, it is difficult to identify them in real time. In this paper, I propose an algorithm based on deep learning to instantaneously classify a seismic…

地球物理 · 物理学 2016-11-29 K. Vikraman

Machine learning is becoming increasingly important in scientific and technological progress, due to its ability to create models that describe complex data and generalize well. The wealth of publicly-available seismic data nowadays…

地球物理 · 物理学 2020-08-10 Fabrizio Magrini , Dario Jozinović , Fabio Cammarano , Alberto Michelini , Lapo Boschi

In the presented paper the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered. During the study, it was used data of the INFREP (European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation) existent before earthquake. The elaborated methods…

地球物理 · 物理学 2019-04-03 Manana Kachakhidze , Nino Kachakhidze-Murphy , Badri Khvitia , Giorgi Ramishvili

Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…

地球物理 · 物理学 2023-01-05 M. Y. Thomas , H. S. Bhat

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-31 Negar Erfanian , Santiago Segarra , Maarten de Hoop

The Earth's preseismic oscillating (T = 24h) electric field recorded for a short-time period of some days is analyzed in terms of its intensity vector azimuthal direction calculated at one monitoring site. The calculated azimuthal…

地球物理 · 物理学 2008-08-14 C. Thanassoulas , V. Klentos , G. Verveniotis

Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Jonas R. Brehmer , Kristof Kraus , Tilmann Gneiting , Marcus Herrmann , Warner Marzocchi