相关论文: Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minima…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
Accurate damage prediction is crucial for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly given the frequent earthquakes in Turkey. Utilizing datasets on earthquake data, infrastructural quality metrics, and contemporary…
The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…
Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
Seismic data are commonly modeled by a high-frequency single scattering approximation. This amounts to a linearization in the medium coefficient about a smooth background. The discontinuities are contained in the medium perturbation. The…
Developing a rapid, but also reliable and efficient, method for classifying the seismic damage potential of buildings constructed in countries with regions of high seismicity is always at the forefront of modern scientific research. Such a…
Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…
Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
In meteorology, engineering and computer sciences, data assimilation is routinely employed as the optimal way to combine noisy observations with prior model information for obtaining better estimates of a state, and thus better forecasts,…
Numerical simulation of seismicity has been successfully developed and used for the two last decades. Presently, the general theory of modeling and the progress in computational techniques provide wide options for simulation of seismic and…
We construct a one-dimensional piecewise linear intermittent map from the interevent time distribution for a given renewal process. Then, we characterize intermittency by the asymptotic behavior near the indifferent fixed point in the…
Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…
Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
The ground structure can substantially influence seismic ground motion underscoring the need to develop a ground structure model with sufficient reliability in terms of ground motion estimation for earthquake damage mitigation. While many…
The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…