相关论文: Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minima…

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to…

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake…

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…

The recently introduced Minimalist Model [Vazquez- Prada et al., 2002] of characteristic earthquakes provides a simple representation of the seismicity originated in a sin- gle fault. Here, we first characterize the properties of this model…

Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…

Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…

A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…

In our paper published earlier we discussed forecasts of earthquake focal mechanism and ways to test the forecast efficiency. Several verification methods were proposed, but they were based on ad-hoc, empirical assumptions, thus their…

We present an overview of our ongoing studies of the rich dynamical behavior of the uniform, deterministic Burridge--Knopoff model of an earthquake fault. We discuss the behavior of the model in the context of current questions in…

Simulating dynamic rupture propagation is challenging due to the uncertainties involved in the underlying physics of fault slip, stress conditions, and frictional properties of the fault. A trial and error approach is often used to…

Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…

The statistics of earthquakes in a heterogeneous fault zone is studied analytically and numerically in the mean field version of a model for a segmented fault system in a three-dimensional elastic solid. The studies focus on the interplay…

We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is…

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are…

A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…

Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…

If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…

Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…