相关论文: A Good Measure for Bayesian Inference

To learn (statistical) dependencies among random variables requires exponentially large sample size in the number of observed random variables if any arbitrary joint probability distribution can occur. We consider the case that sparse data…

Motivated by big data and the vast parameter spaces in modern machine learning models, optimisation approaches to Bayesian inference have seen a surge in popularity in recent years. In this paper, we address the connection between the…

We study generalized Bayesian inference under misspecification, i.e. when the model is 'wrong but useful'. Generalized Bayes equips the likelihood with a learning rate $\eta$. We show that for generalized linear models (GLMs),…

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian machine learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated…

Bayesian networks provide a method of representing conditional independence between random variables and computing the probability distributions associated with these random variables. In this paper, we extend Bayesian network structures to…

The present article derives the minimal number $N$ of observations needed to consider a Bayesian posterior distribution as Gaussian. Two examples are presented. Within one of them, a chi-squared distribution, the observable $x$ as well as…

Bayesian and frequentist criteria fundamentally differ, but often posterior and sampling distributions agree asymptotically (e.g., Gaussian with same covariance). For the corresponding single-draw experiment, we characterize the frequentist…

Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…

A stream of algorithmic advances has steadily increased the popularity of the Bayesian approach as an inference paradigm, both from the theoretical and applied perspective. Even with apparent successes in numerous application fields, a…

The Bayesian framework is ideally suited for induction problems. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true distribution $\mu$ of the sequences…

The prominent Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) result claims that the posterior distribution after centering by the efficient estimator and standardizing by the square root of the total Fisher information is nearly standard normal. In…

We study the sparse high-dimensional Gaussian mixture model when the number of clusters is allowed to grow with the sample size. A minimax lower bound for parameter estimation is established, and we show that a constrained maximum…

Gaussian Process Regression is a popular nonparametric regression method based on Bayesian principles that provides uncertainty estimates for its predictions. However, these estimates are of a Bayesian nature, whereas for some important…

Quadratic variations of Gaussian processes play important role in both stochastic analysis and in applications such as estimation of model parameters, and for this reason the topic has been extensively studied in the literature. In this…

A product of two Gaussians (or normal distributions) is another Gaussian. That's a valuable and useful fact! Here we use it to derive a refactoring of a common product of multivariate Gaussians: The product of a Gaussian likelihood times a…

In this work, the probability of an event under some joint distribution is bounded by measuring it with the product of the marginals instead (which is typically easier to analyze) together with a measure of the dependence between the two…

Preferential sampling is a common feature in geostatistics and occurs when the locations to be sampled are chosen based on information about the phenomena under study. In this case, point pattern models are commonly used as the probability…

Missing data theory deals with the statistical methods in the occurrence of missing data. Missing data occurs when some values are not stored or observed for variables of interest. However, most of the statistical theory assumes that data…

When inferring parameters from a Gaussian-distributed data set by computing a likelihood, a covariance matrix is needed that describes the data errors and their correlations. If the covariance matrix is not known a priori, it may be…

The posterior distribution in a nonparametric inverse problem is shown to contract to the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the parameter, and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these…