相关论文: Testing and forecasting the time series of the sol…

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), starting from the second half of the XX century, has been a rapidly developing method of time series analysis. Since it can be called principal component analysis for time series, SSA will definitely be a…

Six time series related to atmospheric phenomena are used as inputs for experiments offorecasting with singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Existing methods for SSA parametersselection are compared throughout their forecasting accuracy…

Using wavelet analysis approach, the temporal variations of solar activity on time scales ranging from days to decades, are examined from the daily time series of sunspot numbers. A hierarchy of changing complex periods are careful detected…

Knowing the variability of total solar irradiance (TSI) at the top of the atmosphere is crucial for specifying solar influence to climate variability. Satellite measured TSI data are available only for the last 32 years. But there is an…

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) as a tool for analysis and forecasting of time series is considered. The main features of the Rssa package, which implements the SSA algorithms and methodology in R, are described and examples of its use are…

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a nonparametric tool for decomposition of an observed time series into sum of interpretable components such as trend, oscillations and noise is considered. The separability of these series components by…

We study forecasting capabilities of the methods of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Local Approximation (LA). A practical implementation of these methods to several time series is described. Details of the algorithms of these methods…

Results of analysis of long time variations of solar activities based on monthly Wolf number series (1749-2011 years) are represented. Shown the presence of stable oscillations in autocorrelation function for the Wolf numbers series with a…

Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…

In this paper, we introduce a new extension of the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) called functional SSA to analyze functional time series. The new methodology is developed by integrating ideas from functional data analysis and univariate…

Solar activity is an important driver of long-term climate trends and must be accounted for in climate models. Unfortunately, direct measurements of this quantity over long periods do not exist. The only observation related to solar…

Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) occupies a prominent place in the real signal analysis toolkit alongside Fourier and Wavelet analysis. In addition to the two aforementioned analyses, SSA allows the separation of patterns directly from the…

Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…

Our knowledge of the long-term evolution of solar activity and of its primary modulation, the 11-year cycle, largely depends on a single direct observational record: the visual sunspot counts that retrace the last 4 centuries, since the…

The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…

Understanding the temporal characteristics of data from low frequency radio telescopes is of importance in devising suitable calibration strategies. Application of time series analysis techniques to data from radio telescopes can reveal a…

The automated detection of solar features is a technique which is relatively underused but if we are to keep up with the flow of data from spacecraft such as the recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory, then such techniques will be…

Sunspots are the most important indicator of the magnetic activity on the solar surface during a cycle. Every sunspot group is formed and shaped by the magnetic field of the Sun. Hence, the magnetic field intensity shows itself as the size…

Detailed models of the solar cycle require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. However, none of these models includes a discussion of the variations in the length of the cycle,…

We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…