相关论文: The Repeated Solicitation Model

Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…

We consider a service system where agents are invited on-demand. Customers arrive exogenously as a Poisson process and join a customer queue upon arrival if no agent is available. Agents decide to accept or decline invitations after some…

Persuasion, defined as the act of exploiting an informational advantage in order to effect the decisions of others, is ubiquitous. Indeed, persuasive communication has been estimated to account for almost a third of all economic activity in…

Voting is a general method for aggregating the preferences of multiple agents. Each agent ranks all the possible alternatives, and based on this, an aggregate ranking of the alternatives (or at least a winning alternative) is produced.…

We consider a service system where agents (or, servers) are invited on-demand. Customers arrive as a Poisson process and join a customer queue. Customer service times are i.i.d. exponential. Agents' behavior is random in two respects.…

We study a repeated information design setting in which the receiver, who is also the decision-maker, updates beliefs in a systematically biased way. More specifically, a distorted posterior in our model can be written as a convex…

Viral marketing takes advantage of preexisting social networks among customers to achieve large changes in behaviour. Models of influence spread have been studied in a number of domains, including the effect of "word of mouth" in the…

We investigate activities that have different periods of duration. We define the profit intensity as a measure of this economic category. The profit intensity in a repeated trading has a unique property of attaining its maximum at a fixed…

We propose a model of causal persuasion, in which a sender selectively discloses a set of variables together with their true joint distribution and proposes a subjective causal model that binds them. A receiver is persuaded by this model…

Any firm whose business strategy has an exposure constraint that limits its potential gain naturally considers expansion, as this can increase its exposure. We model business expansion as an enlargement of the opportunity set for business…

We study a queueing network with a single shared server that serves the queues in a cyclic order. External customers arrive at the queues according to independent Poisson processes. After completing service, a customer either leaves the…

In a game of persuasion with evidence, a sender has private information. By presenting evidence on the information, the sender wishes to persuade a receiver to take a single action (e.g., hire a job candidate, or convict a defendant). The…

Widespread deployment of societal-scale machine learning systems necessitates a thorough understanding of the resulting long-term effects these systems have on their environment, including loss of trustworthiness, bias amplification, and…

We propose models for lobbying in a probabilistic environment, in which an actor (called "The Lobby") seeks to influence voters' preferences of voting for or against multiple issues when the voters' preferences are represented in terms of…

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should partially disclose information so as to influence the behavior of self-interested receivers. In the last years, a growing attention has been devoted to relaxing the assumption that…

The Poisson process of order $i$ is a weighted sum of independent Poisson processes and is used to model the flow of clients in different services. In the paper below we study some extensions of this process, for different forms of the…

Eliciting informative prior distributions for Bayesian inference can often be complex and challenging. While popular methods rely on asking experts probability based questions to quantify uncertainty, these methods are not without their…

In this paper, a new mixed Poisson distribution is introduced. This new distribution is obtained by utilizing mixing process, with Poisson distribution as mixed distribution and Transmuted Exponential distribution as mixing distribution.…

Probabilistic time-series models become popular in the forecasting field as they help to make optimal decisions under uncertainty. Despite the growing interest, a lack of thorough analysis hinders choosing what is worth applying for the…

Group-buying auction has become a popular marketing strategy in the last decade. In this paper, a stochastic model is developed for an inventory system subjects to demands from group-buying auctions. The model discussed here takes into the…