相关论文: On the non-arbitrary assignment of equi-probable p…

All priors are not created equal. There are right and there are wrong priors. That is the main conclusion of this contribution. I use, a cooked-up example designed to create drama, and a typical textbook example to show the pervasiveness of…

In this paper, we study axiomatic foundations of Bayesian persuasion, where a principal (i.e., sender) delegates the task of choice making after informing a biased agent (i.e., receiver) about the payoff relevant uncertain state (see, e.g.,…

A Bayesian inference method for problems with small samples and sparse data is presented in this paper. A general type of prior ($\propto 1/\sigma^{q}$) is proposed to formulate the Bayesian posterior for inference problems under small…

The following zero-sum game between nature and a statistician blends Bayesian methods with frequentist methods such as p-values and confidence intervals. Nature chooses a posterior distribution consistent with a set of possible priors. At…

To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…

A new general framework is presented for implementing complex a priori knowledge, having in mind especially situations where the number of available training data is small compared to the complexity of the learning task. A priori…

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

The emergent field of probabilistic numerics has thus far lacked clear statistical principals. This paper establishes Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods as those which can be cast as solutions to certain inverse problems within the…

An agent observes a clue, and an analyst observes an inference: a ranking of events on the basis of how corroborated they are by the clue. We prove that if the inference satisfies the axioms of Villegas (1964) except for the classic…

Prior distributions elicited for modelling the natural fluctuations or the uncertainty on parameters of Bayesian fishery population models, can be chosen among a vast range of statistical laws. Since the statistical framework is defined by…

Reference analysis produces objective Bayesian inference, in the sense that inferential statements depend only on the assumed model and the available data, and the prior distribution used to make an inference is least informative in a…

For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistical modeling can involve a tension between assumptions and statistical identification. The law of the observable data may not uniquely determine the value of a target parameter without invoking a key assumption, and, while…

Starting with the neo-Bayesian revival of the 1950s, many statisticians argued that it was inappropriate to use Bayesian methods, and in particular subjective Bayesian methods in governmental and public policy settings because of their…

Total probability and Bayes formula are two basic tools for using prior information in the Bayesian statistics. In this paper we introduce an alternative tool for using prior information. This new toold enables us to improve some…

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…