相关论文: The Cox Theorem: Unknowns And Plausible Value

In the absence of empirical confirmation, scientists may judge a theory's chances of being viable based on a wide range of arguments. The paper argues that such arguments can differ substantially with regard to their structural similarly to…

The ``impossibility theorem'' -- which is considered foundational in algorithmic fairness literature -- asserts that there must be trade-offs between common notions of fairness and performance when fitting statistical models, except in two…

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the…

We present a derivation of the third postulate of Relational Quantum Mechanics (RQM) from the properties of conditional probabilities.The first two RQM postulates are based on the information that can be extracted from interaction of…

The likelihood principle makes strong claims about the nature of statistical evidence but is controversial. Its claims are undermined by the existence of several examples that are assumed to show that it allows, with unity probability,…

This paper considers the notion of possible events which are insignificant in probabilistic analysis (i.e. events that have zero probability). The paper discusses the method of modal logic based on "possible worlds" and discusses a…

After surveying classical results, we introduce a generalized notion of inference system to support structural recursion on non-well-founded data types. Besides axioms and inference rules with the usual meaning, a generalized inference…

Algorithms of inference in a computer system oriented to input and semantic processing of text information are presented. Such inference is necessary for logical questions when the direct comparison of objects from a question and database…

Choice functions constitute a simple, direct and very general mathematical framework for modelling choice under uncertainty. In particular, they are able to represent the set-valued choices that typically arise from applying decision rules…

An example shows that weak decoherence is more restrictive than the minimal logical decoherence structure that allows probabilities to be used consistently for quantum histories. The probabilities in the sum rules that define minimal…

A very simple but useful almost sure convergence theorem of probability is given.

Let (X_n) be a sequence of random variables (with values in a separable metric space) and (N_n) a sequence of random indices. Conditions for X_{N_n} to converge stably (in particular, in distribution) are provided. Some examples, where such…

I offer an account of how the quantum theory we have helps us explain so much. The account depends on a pragmatist interpretation of the theory: This takes a quantum state to serve solely as a source of sound advice to physically situated…

We introduce a set of eight universal Rules of Inference by which computer programs with known properties (axioms) are transformed into new programs with known properties (theorems). Axioms are presented to formalize a segment of Number…

Jakob Bernoulli, working in the late 17th century, identified a gap in contemporary probability theory. He cautioned that it was inadequate to specify force of proof (probability of provability) for some kinds of uncertain arguments. After…

Probabilities of causation (PoCs) are fundamental quantities for counterfactual analysis and personalized decision making. However, existing analytical results are largely confined to binary settings. This paper extends PoCs to multi-valued…

This paper advocates the usefulness of new theories of uncertainty for the purpose of modeling some facets of uncertain knowledge, especially vagueness, in AI. It can be viewed as a partial reply to Cheeseman's (among others) defense of…

We study a generalization of conditional probability for arbitrary ordered vector spaces. A related problem is that of assigning a numerical value to one vector relative to another. We characterize the groups for which these generalized…

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Decision-making under uncertainty and causal thinking are fundamental aspects of intelligent reasoning. Decision-making has been well studied when the available information is considered at the associative (probabilistic) level. The…