相关论文: The Cox Theorem: Unknowns And Plausible Value

A very simple example demonstrates that Fisher's application of the conditionality principle to regression ("fixed-$x$ regression"), endorsed by Sprott and many other followers, makes prediction impossible in the context of statistical…

We formalize the idea of probability distributions that lead to reliable predictions about some, but not all aspects of a domain. The resulting notion of `safety' provides a fresh perspective on foundational issues in statistics, providing…

We prove a new sum uncertainty relation in quantum theory which states that the uncertainty in the sum of two or more observables is always less than or equal to the sum of the uncertainties in corresponding observables. This shows that the…

This paper explains why internal and external validity cannot be simultaneously maximised. It introduces "evidential states" to represent the information available for causal inference and shows that routine study operations (restriction,…

A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid for elementary events and for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting…

This paper presents an advance in the direction of working with probabilities in a paracomplete setting using Logics of Formal Undeterminedness (LFUs). The undeterminedness is interpreted here as missing evidence. A theorem of total…

This paper is purely expository. We present short elementary proofs of * the Gauss Theorem on constructibility of regular polygons; * the existence of a cubic equation unsolvable in real radicals; * the existence of a quintic equation…

We collect here various conjectures on congruences made by the author in a series of papers, some of which involve binary quadratic forms and other advanced theories. Part A consists of 100 unsolved conjectures of the author while…

We introduce a logic for reasoning about evidence that essentially views evidence as a function from prior beliefs (before making an observation) to posterior beliefs (after making the observation). We provide a sound and complete…

We explore a fuzzy modal logic that can formalise probabilistic reasoning about actions and knowledge. In particular, we deal with contexts involving statements about events expressed via modal formulas, e.g., "after doing $a$, the…

We consider how to define a natural probability distribution over worlds within a simple class of deterministic many-worlds theories. This can help us understand the typical properties of worlds within such states, and hence explain the…

An approach to reasoning with default rules where the proportion of exceptions, or more generally the probability of encountering an exception, can be at least roughly assessed is presented. It is based on local uncertainty propagation…

In this paper we deal with a new approach to probabilistic reasoning in a logical framework. Nearly almost all logics of probability that have been proposed in the literature are based on classical two-valued logic. After making clear the…

Considering an extended type of Bohm's version of EPR thought experiment, we derive Bell's inequality for the case of factorizable contextual hidden variable theories which are consistent with the predictions of quantum theory. Usually…

Many legal cases require decisions about causality, responsibility or blame, and these may be based on statistical data. However, causal inferences from such data are beset by subtle conceptual and practical difficulties, and in general it…

We introduce a logic for reasoning about evidence, that essentially views evidence as a function from prior beliefs (before making an observation) to posterior beliefs (after making the observation). We provide a sound and complete…

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory, but instead use heuristics which sometimes yield reasonable…

We introduce a quantum generalisation of the notion of coupling in probability theory. Several interesting examples and basic properties of quantum couplings are presented. In particular, we prove a quantum extension of Strassen theorem for…

The paper by Mayo claims to provide a new clarification and critique of Birnbaum's argument for showing that sufficiency and conditionality principles imply the likelihood principle. However, much of the arguments go back to arguments made…

An agent often has a number of hypotheses, and must choose among them based on observations, or outcomes of experiments. Each of these observations can be viewed as providing evidence for or against various hypotheses. All the attempts to…