相关论文: Adaptive confidence balls

Confidence bands are confidence sets for an unknown function f, containing all functions within some sup-norm distance of an estimator. In the density estimation, regression, and white noise models, we consider the problem of constructing…

We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution…

We construct confidence sets for the regression function in nonparametric binary regression with an unknown design density. These confidence sets are adaptive in $L^2$ loss over a continuous class of Sobolev type spaces. Adaptation holds in…

We consider the problem of constructing honest and adaptive confidence sets in Lp-loss (with p>=1 and p < infinity) over sets of Sobolev-type classes, in the setting of non-parametric Gaussian regression. The objective is to adapt the…

We study the problem of learning a high-density region of an arbitrary distribution over $\mathbb{R}^d$. Given a target coverage parameter $\delta$, and sample access to an arbitrary distribution $D$, we want to output a confidence set $S…

In this paper, we propose and study construction of confidence bands for shape-constrained regression functions when the predictor is multivariate. In particular, we consider the continuous multidimensional white noise model given by $d…

A $d$-dimensional nonparametric additive regression model with dependent observations is considered. Using the marginal integration technique and wavelets methodology, we develop a new adaptive estimator for a component of the additive…

Let $Y$ be a stochastic process on $[0,1]$ satisfying $dY(t) = n^{1/2} f(t) dt + dW(t)$, where $n \ge 1$ is a given scale parameter (``sample size''), $W$ is standard Brownian motion and $f$ is an unknown function. Utilizing suitable…

Confidence intervals for the means of multiple normal populations are often based on a hierarchical normal model. While commonly used interval procedures based on such a model have the nominal coverage rate on average across a population of…

In this article, we derive an explicit formula for computing confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable. Moreover, we have developed multistage point estimation methods for estimating the mean value with prescribed…

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

We deal with the problem of the adaptive estimation of the $\mathbb{L}_2$-norm of a probability density on $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\geq 1$, from independent observations. The unknown density is assumed to be uniformly bounded and to belong to the…

We study the size (or volume) of balls in the metric space of permutations, $S_n$, under the infinity metric. We focus on the regime of balls with radius $r = \rho \cdot (n\!-\!1)$, $\rho \in [0,1]$, i.e., a radius that is a constant…

The current standard for confidence interval construction in the context of a possibly misspecified model is to use an interval based on the sandwich estimate of variance. These intervals provide asymptotically correct coverage, but…

The problem of constructing confidence sets in the high-dimensional linear model with $n$ response variables and $p$ parameters, possibly $p\ge n$, is considered. Full honest adaptive inference is possible if the rate of sparse estimation…

We construct an adaptive wavelet estimator that attains minimax near-optimal rates in a wide range of Besov balls. The convergence rates are affected only by the weakest dependence amongst the channels, and take into account both noise…

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

One-sided confidence intervals are presented for the average of non-identical Bernoulli parameters. These confidence intervals are expressed as analytical functions of the total number of Bernoulli games won, the number of rounds and the…

We develop and analyze the HulC, an intuitive and general method for constructing confidence sets using the convex hull of estimates constructed from subsets of the data. Unlike classical methods which are based on estimating the (limiting)…

Learning-rate steps are usually treated as hyperparameters. This paper isolates a local beliefspace calculation: when an update is modeled as a projected forward step on the probability simplex, admissibility means contractivity in the…