相关论文: A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use, especially in cases of limited statistics when often one-sided limits are quoted. In order to estimate the stability of the…

Philosophers now seem to agree that frequentism is an untenable strategy to explain the meaning of probabilities. Nevertheless, I want to revive frequentism, and I will do so by grounding probabilities on typicality in the same way as the…

This paper considers the problem of constructing a confidence sequence, which is a sequence of confidence intervals that hold uniformly over time, for estimating the mean of bounded real-valued random processes. This paper revisits the…

Variable selection for regression models plays a key role in the analysis of biomedical data. However, inference after selection is not covered by classical statistical frequentist theory which assumes a fixed set of covariates in the…

Under standard regularity assumptions, we provide simple approximations for specific classes of fiducial and confidence distributions and discuss their connections with objective Bayesian posteriors. For a real parameter the approximations…

Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…

We provide practical, efficient, and nonparametric methods for auditing the fairness of deployed classification and regression models. Whereas previous work relies on a fixed-sample size, our methods are sequential and allow for the…

The problem of induction has persisted since Hume exposed the logical gap between repeated observation and universal inference. Traditional attempts to resolve it have oscillated between two extremes: the probabilistic optimism of Laplace…

Statistical Inference is the process of determining a probability distribution over the space of parameters of a model given a data set. As more data becomes available this probability distribution becomes updated via the application of…

Prediction credibility measures, in the form of confidence intervals or probability distributions, are fundamental in statistics and machine learning to characterize model robustness, detect out-of-distribution samples (outliers), and…

Econometric models of strategic interactions among people or firms have received a great deal of attention in the literature. Less attention has been paid to the role of the underlying assumptions about the way agents form beliefs about…

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) enables valid statistical inference by combining experimental data with machine learning predictions. When a sufficient number of high-quality predictions is available, PPI results in more accurate…

In Dempster-Shafer belief theory, general beliefs are expressed as belief mass distribution functions over frames of discernment. In Subjective Logic beliefs are expressed as belief mass distribution functions over binary frames of…

Bayesian inference is limited in scope because it cannot be applied in idealized contexts where none of the hypotheses under consideration is true and because it is committed to always using the likelihood as a measure of evidential…

In a strand of the literature, it is assumed that the common prior has full support; that is, every type of every player is assigned positive probability. Morris (1991,1994) established an epistemological-behavioral duality characterisation…

Trust models are widely used in various computer science disciplines. The main purpose of a trust model is to continuously measure trustworthiness of a set of entities based on their behaviors. In this article, the novel notion of "rational…

Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting…

Frequentist inference typically is described in terms of hypothetical repeated sampling but there are advantages to an interpretation that uses a single random sample. Contemporary examples are given that indicate probabilities for random…

We consider how an agent should update her beliefs when her beliefs are represented by a set P of probability distributions, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used…