相关论文: Les p-values comme votes d'experts

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

When presenting forensic evidence, such as a DNA match, experts often use the Likelihood ratio (LR) to explain the impact of evidence . The LR measures the probative value of the evidence with respect to a single hypothesis such as 'DNA…

The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…

An agent often has a number of hypotheses, and must choose among them based on observations, or outcomes of experiments. Each of these observations can be viewed as providing evidence for or against various hypotheses. All the attempts to…

Propensity scores are often used for stratification of treatment and control groups of subjects in observational data to remove confounding bias when estimating of causal effect of the treatment on an outcome in so-called potential outcome…

We analyze the notion that physical theories are quantitative and testable by observations in experiments. This leads us to propose a new, Bayesian, interpretation of probabilities in physics that unifies their current use in classical…

Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…

The American Statistical Association (ASA) statement on statistical significance and P-values \cite{wasserstein2016asa} cautioned statisticians against making scientific decisions solely on the basis of traditional P-values. The statement…

We seek to conduct statistical inference for a large collection of primary parameters, each with its own nuisance parameters. Our approach is partially Bayesian, in that we treat the primary parameters as fixed while we model the nuisance…

An agent often has a number of hypotheses, and must choose among them based on observations, or outcomes of experiments. Each of these observations can be viewed as providing evidence for or against various hypotheses. All the attempts to…

A scientific reasoning system makes decisions using objective evidence in the form of independent experimental trials, propositional axioms, and constraints on the probabilities of events. As a first step towards this goal, we propose a…

A common task in high-throughput biology is to screen for associations across thousands of units of interest, e.g., genes or proteins. Often, the data for each unit are modeled as Gaussian measurements with unknown mean and variance and are…

We study a large-scale one-sided multiple testing problem in which test statistics follow normal distributions with unit variance, and the goal is to identify signals with positive mean effects. A conventional approach is to compute…

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to…

Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual…

When a scientist performs an experiment they normally acquire a set of measurements and are expected to demonstrate that their results are "statistically significant" thus confirming whatever hypothesis they are testing. The main method for…

This article gives a survey of the e-value, a statistical significance measure a.k.a. the evidence rendered by observational data, X, in support of a statistical hypothesis, H, or, the other way around, the epistemic value of H given X. The…

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…

A number of biomedical problems require performing many hypothesis tests, with an attendant need to apply stringent thresholds. Often the data take the form of a series of predictor vectors, each of which must be compared with a single…

The energy test method is a multi-dimensional test of whether two samples are consistent with arising from the same underlying population, through the calculation of a single test statistic (called the $T$-value). The method has recently…