相关论文: Modelling multivariate volatilies via conditionall…

We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…

We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of…

This paper introduces new techniques for estimating, identifying and simulating mixed causal-noncausal invertible-noninvertible models. We propose a framework that integrates high-order cumulants, merging both the spectrum and bispectrum…

Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach,…

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…

Seemingly unrelated regression models generalize linear regression models by considering multiple regression equations that are linked by contemporaneously correlated disturbances. Robust inference for seemingly unrelated regression models…

In this paper we introduce a new class of multivariate unimodal distributions, motivated by Khintchine's representation. We start by proposing a univariate model, whose support covers all the unimodal distributions on the real line. The…

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are fundamental for theoretically describing numerous physical processes that are based on some input fields in spatial configurations. Understanding the physical process, in general, requires…

We consider a continuous-time stochastic volatility model. The model contains a stationary volatility process, the multivariate density of the finite dimensional distributions of which we aim to estimate. We assume that we observe the…

A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step…

Unmeasured confounding is a major challenge for identifying causal relationships from non-experimental data. Here, we propose a method that can accommodate unmeasured discrete confounding. Extending recent identifiability results in deep…

Predicting fuel assembly bow in pressurized water reactors requires solving tightly coupled fluid-structure interaction problems, whose direct simulations can be computationally prohibitive, making large-scale uncertainty quantification…

We propose a new class of extreme-value copulas which are extreme-value limits of conditional normal models. Conditional normal models are generalizations of conditional independence models, where the dependence among observed variables is…

In this paper, we focus on the problem of stable prediction across unknown test data, where the test distribution is agnostic and might be totally different from the training one. In such a case, previous machine learning methods might…

As robotic systems move from highly structured environments to open worlds, incorporating uncertainty from dynamics learning or state estimation into the control pipeline is essential for robust performance. In this paper we present a…

Models which allow an explicit application to structurally modulated substances are reviewed within the frame of a symmetry-based approach starting from discrete lattice theory. Focus is set on models formulated in terms of local variables…

As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

A scattering model is developed for ultracold molecular collisions, which allows inelastic processes, chemical reactions, and complex formation to be treated in a unified way. All these scattering processes and various combinations of them…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…