相关论文: Modelling multivariate volatilies via conditionall…

We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in…

This work proposes a framework for multistage adjustable robust optimization that unifies the treatment of three different types of endogenous uncertainty, where decisions, respectively, (i) alter the uncertainty set, (ii) affect the…

This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) is a recently proposed variation of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation that achieves variance reduction by simulating the governing equations on a series of spatial (or temporal) grids with increasing resolution.…

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity.…

Let $X = \{X_{u}\}_{u \in U}$ be a real-valued Gaussian process indexed by a set $U$. It can be thought of as an undirected graphical model with every random variable $X_{u}$ serving as a vertex. We characterize this graph in terms of the…

Model-based reinforcement learning has the potential to be more sample efficient than model-free approaches. However, existing model-based methods are vulnerable to model bias, which leads to poor generalization and asymptotic performance…

In line with the increasing attention paid to deal with uncertainty in ordinal data models, we propose to combine Fuzzy models with \cub models within questionnaire analysis. In particular, the focus will be on \cub models' uncertainty…

A meta-model of the input-output data of a computationally expensive simulation is often employed for prediction, optimization, or sensitivity analysis purposes. Fitting is enabled by a designed experiment, and for computationally expensive…

Medical multimodal learning faces significant challenges with missing modalities prevalent in clinical practice. Existing approaches assume equal contribution of modality and random missing patterns, neglecting inherent uncertainty in…

In this article, we introduce the concept of model confidence bounds (MCB) for variable selection in the context of nested models. Similarly to the endpoints in the familiar confidence interval for parameter estimation, the MCB identifies…

This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…

Periodically forced turbulence is used as a test case to evaluate the predictions of two-equation and multiple-scale turbulence models in unsteady flows. The limitations of the two-equation model are shown to originate in the basic…

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a booming discipline for complex computational models based on the analysis of robustness, reliability and credibility. UQ analysis for nonlinear crash models with high dimensional outputs presents…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…

This article primarily aims to unify the various formalisms of multivariate coefficients of variation, leveraging advanced concepts of generalized means, whether weighted or not, applied to the eigenvalues of covariance matrices. We…

Challenges in multi-fidelity modeling relate to accuracy, uncertainty estimation and high-dimensionality. A novel additive structure is introduced in which the highest fidelity solution is written as a sum of the lowest fidelity solution…

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models…

We consider a multiphysics system with multiple component models coupled together through network coupling interfaces, i.e., a handful of scalars. If each component model contains uncertainties represented by a set of parameters, a…