相关论文: A Value-At-Risk approach for robust management of …

This paper develops risk-averse models to support system operators in planning and operating the electricity grid under uncertainty from renewable power generation. We incorporate financial risk hedging using conditional value at risk…

In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…

This paper addresses a central challenge of jointly considering shorter-term (e.g. hourly) and longer-term (e.g. yearly) uncertainties in power system planning with increasing penetration of renewable and storage resources. In conventional…

We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to managing the Value at Risk (VaR) assuming a heavy tailed distribution of…

We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…

Over the last few decades, electricity markets around the world have adopted multi-settlement structures, allowing for balancing of supply and demand as more accurate forecast information becomes available. Given increasing uncertainty due…

The problem of data uncertainty has motivated the incorporation of robust optimization in various arenas, beyond the Markowitz portfolio optimization. This work presents the extension of the robust optimization framework for the…

This paper considers the problem of Volt-VAR Optimization (VVO) in active smart grids. Active smart grids are equipped with distributed generators, distributed storage systems, and tie-line switches that allow for topological…

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…

The entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) is a new coherent risk measure, which is an upper bound for both the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). As important properties, the EVaR is strongly monotone over its domain and…

Risk measures are important key figures to measure the adequacy of the reserves of a company. The most common risk measures in practice are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recently, quantum-based algorithms are…

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a widely used instrument in financial risk management. The question of estimating the VaR of loss return distributions at extreme levels is an important question in financial applications, both from operational…

The optimal operation problem of electric vehicle aggregator (EVA) is considered. An EVA can participate in energy and regulation markets with its current and upcoming EVs, thus reducing its total cost of purchasing energy to fulfill EVs'…

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…

A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the…

The popularity of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk functional from finance, has been growing in the control systems community due to its intuitive interpretation and axiomatic foundation. We consider a nonstandard optimal control…

It is of growing concern to ensure the resilience in electricity infrastructure systems to extreme weather events with the help of appropriate hardening measures and new operational procedures. An effective mitigation strategy requires a…

Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…

We study risk-aware linear policy approximations for the optimal operation of an energy system with stochastic wind power, storage, and limited fuel. The resulting problem is a sequential decision-making problem with rolling forecasts. In…

Wildfires and other extreme weather conditions due to climate change are stressing the aging electrical infrastructure. Power utilities have implemented public safety power shutoffs as a method to mitigate the risk of wildfire by…