相关论文: Optimal predictive model selection

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

In high-stakes applications, predictive models must not only produce accurate predictions but also quantify and communicate their uncertainty. Reject-option prediction addresses this by allowing the model to abstain when prediction…

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Consider the task of estimating a random vector $X$ from noisy observations $Y = X + Z$, where $Z$ is a standard normal vector, under the $L^p$ fidelity criterion. This work establishes that, for $1 \leq p \leq 2$, the optimal Bayesian…

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

Many real-world decision processes are modeled by optimization problems whose defining parameters are unknown and must be inferred from observable data. The Predict-Then-Optimize framework uses machine learning models to predict unknown…

In cluster analysis interest lies in probabilistically capturing partitions of individuals, items or observations into groups, such that those belonging to the same group share similar attributes or relational profiles. Bayesian posterior…

Addressing uncertainty is critical for autonomous systems to robustly adapt to the real world. We formulate the problem of model uncertainty as a continuous Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP), where an agent maintains a…

In model-based reinforcement learning, planning with an imperfect model of the environment has the potential to harm learning progress. But even when a model is imperfect, it may still contain information that is useful for planning. In…

We study objective Bayesian inference for linear regression models with residual errors distributed according to the class of two-piece scale mixtures of normal distributions. These models allow for capturing departures from the usual…

Contemporary sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models require users to specify fixed values of assumed model performance metrics alongside target precision levels (e.g., 95% CI widths). However, due to the…

It is generally accepted that all models are wrong -- the difficulty is determining which are useful. Here, a useful model is considered as one that is capable of combining data and expert knowledge, through an inversion or calibration…

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small…

With the advent of structured data in the form of social networks, genetic circuits and protein interaction networks, statistical analysis of networks has gained popularity over recent years. Stochastic block model constitutes a classical…

The problem of model selection is inevitable in an increasingly large number of applications involving partial theoretical knowledge and vast amounts of information, like in medicine, biology or economics. The associated techniques are…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

A convex optimization model predicts an output from an input by solving a convex optimization problem. The class of convex optimization models is large, and includes as special cases many well-known models like linear and logistic…

The Predict-Then-Optimize framework uses machine learning models to predict unknown parameters of an optimization problem from exogenous features before solving. This setting is common to many real-world decision processes, and recently it…

We consider Bayesian model selection in generalized linear models that are high-dimensional, with the number of covariates p being large relative to the sample size n, but sparse in that the number of active covariates is small compared to…

A local projection model is defined by a set of linear regressions that account for the associations between exogenous variables and an endogenous variable observed at different time points. While it is standard practice to separately…