相关论文: Optimal predictive model selection

While uncertainty estimation is a well-studied topic in deep learning, most such work focuses on marginal uncertainty estimates, i.e. the predictive mean and variance at individual input locations. But it is often more useful to estimate…

Linear models with a growing number of parameters have been widely used in modern statistics. One important problem about this kind of model is the variable selection issue. Bayesian approaches, which provide a stochastic search of…

Classical model selection seeks to find a single model within a particular class that optimizes some pre-specified criteria, such as maximizing a likelihood or minimizing a risk. More recently, there has been an increased interest in model…

For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the…

The ``prediction + optimal control'' scheme has shown good performance in many applications of automotive, traffic, robot, and building control. In practice, the prediction results are simply considered correct in the optimal control design…

Which neural networks are similar is a fundamental question for both machine learning and neuroscience. Here, it is proposed to base comparisons on the predictive distributions of linear readouts from intermediate representations. In…

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is commonly used for parameter estimation and model comparison for intractable simulator-based models whose likelihood function cannot be evaluated. In this paper we instead investigate the feasibility…

Statistical modeling often involves identifying an optimal estimate to some underlying probability distribution known to satisfy some given constraints. I show here that choosing as estimate the centroid, or center of mass, of the set…

Model averaging is a useful and robust method for dealing with model uncertainty in statistical analysis. Often, it is useful to consider data subset selection at the same time, in which model selection criteria are used to compare models…

The task of learning to pick a single preferred example out a finite set of examples, an "optimal choice problem", is a supervised machine learning problem with complex, structured input. Problems of optimal choice emerge often in various…

Variable selection, or more generally, model reduction is an important aspect of the statistical workflow aiming to provide insights from data. In this paper, we discuss and demonstrate the benefits of using a reference model in variable…

Engineers are often faced with the decision to select the most appropriate model for simulating the behavior of engineered systems, among a candidate set of models. Experimental monitoring data can generate significant value by supporting…

Bayesian model selection provides a formal method of determining the level of support for new parameters in a model. However, if there is not a specific enough underlying physical motivation for the new parameters it can be hard to assign…

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Network models are applied across many domains where data can be represented as a network. Two prominent paradigms for modeling networks are statistical models (probabilistic models for the observed network) and mechanistic models (models…

Finding methods for making generalizable predictions is a fundamental problem of machine learning. By looking into similarities between the prediction problem for unknown data and the lossless compression we have found an approach that…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

Decision-guided perspectives on model uncertainty expand traditional statistical thinking about managing, comparing and combining inferences from sets of models. Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) advances conceptual and…