相关论文: Optimal predictive model selection

Optimization constrained by high-fidelity computational models has potential for transformative impact. However, such optimization is frequently unattainable in practice due to the complexity and computational intensity of the model. An…

High-dimensional tests are applied to find relevant sets of variables and relevant models. If variables are selected by analyzing the sums of products matrices and a corresponding mean-value test is performed, there is the danger that the…

We present a framework for the efficient computation of optimal Bayesian decisions under intractable likelihoods, by learning a surrogate model for the expected utility (or its distribution) as a function of the action and data spaces. We…

We consider the problem of estimating the unconditional distribution of a post-model-selection estimator. The notion of a post-model-selection estimator here refers to the combined procedure resulting from first selecting a model (e.g., by…

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

Performative prediction is a framework for learning models that influence the data they intend to predict. We focus on finding classifiers that are performatively stable, i.e. optimal for the data distribution they induce. Standard…

Model selection aims to determine which theoretical models are most plausible given some data, without necessarily asking about the preferred values of the model parameters. A common model selection question is to ask when new data require…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this over-confidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian…

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

The role model strategy is introduced as a method for designing an estimator by approaching the output of a superior estimator that has better input observations. This strategy is shown to yield the optimal Bayesian estimator when a Markov…

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of…

We review typical design problems encountered in the planning of observational studies and propose a unifying framework that allows us to use the same concepts and notation for different problems. In the framework, the design is defined as…

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

Model selection is a strategy aimed at creating accurate and robust models. A key challenge in designing these algorithms is identifying the optimal model for classifying any particular input sample. This paper addresses this challenge and…

Model selection is an integral problem of model based optimization techniques such as Bayesian optimization (BO). Current approaches often treat model selection as an estimation problem, to be periodically updated with observations coming…

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

Model uncertainty is pervasive in real world analysis situations and is an often-neglected issue in applied statistics. However, standard approaches to the research process do not address the inherent uncertainty in model building and,…

The mathematical models used to capture features of complex, biological systems are typically non-linear, meaning that there are no generally valid simple relationships between their outputs and the data that might be used to validate them.…

In the context of a high-dimensional linear regression model, we propose the use of an empirical correlation-adaptive prior that makes use of information in the observed predictor variable matrix to adaptively address high collinearity,…