相关论文: Multiscale likelihood analysis and complexity pena…

In high-dimensional model selection problems, penalized simple least-square approaches have been extensively used. This paper addresses the question of both robustness and efficiency of penalized model selection methods, and proposes a…

In this technical report, we consider conditional density estimation with a maximum likelihood approach. Under weak assumptions, we obtain a theoretical bound for a Kullback-Leibler type loss for a single model maximum likelihood estimate.…

Frailty models are essential tools in survival analysis for addressing unobserved heterogeneity and random effects in the data. These models incorporate a random effect, the frailty, which is assumed to impact the hazard rate…

This paper is devoted to the multivariate estimation of a vector of Poisson means. A novel loss function that penalises bad estimates of each of the parameters and the sum (or equivalently the mean) of the parameters is introduced. Under…

This paper introduces a framework for estimating fair optimal predictions using machine learning where the notion of fairness can be quantified using path-specific causal effects. We use a recently developed approach based on Lagrange…

Variable selection naturally arises as a useful subject when faced with data with massive predictor space. In addition to the massive dimensionality, the data may be characterized by intra-subject correlation, and cure fraction, which are…

We propose a new factor analysis framework and estimators of the factors and loadings that are robust to certain weak factors in a large $N$ and large $T$ setting. Our framework, by simultaneously considering all quantile levels of the…

Latent variable models have been widely applied in different fields of research in which the constructs of interest are not directly observable, so that one or more latent variables are required to reduce the complexity of the data. In…

Likelihood profiling is an efficient and powerful frequentist approach for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and practical identifiablity analysis. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be easily applied for stochastic models…

Economic and financial models -- such as vector autoregressions, local projections, and multivariate volatility models -- feature complex dynamic interactions and spillovers across many time series. These models can be integrated into a…

This paper develops a general theory on rates of convergence of penalized spline estimators for function estimation when the likelihood functional is concave in candidate functions, where the likelihood is interpreted in a broad sense that…

One key issue in several astrophysical problems is the evaluation of the density probability function underlying an observational discrete data set. We here review two non-parametric density estimators which recently appeared in the…

We introduce a flexible individual frailty model for clustered right-censored data, in which covariate effects can be marginally interpreted as log failure odds ratios. Flexible correlation structures can be imposed by introducing…

Frailty models are often the model of choice for heterogeneous survival data. A frailty model contains both random effects and fixed effects, with the random effects accommodating for the correlation in the data. Different estimation…

We introduce a framework for uncertainty estimation that both describes and extends many existing methods. We consider typical hyperparameters involved in classical training as random variables and marginalise them out to capture various…

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis identifies the influential uncertain input to guide decision-making. We propose a general sensitivity framework with respect to the input distribution parameters that unifies a wide range of sensitivity…

We consider a finite mixture of regressions (FMR) model for high-dimensional inhomogeneous data where the number of covariates may be much larger than sample size. We propose an l1-penalized maximum likelihood estimator in an appropriate…

Factorization machines (FMs) are a powerful tool for regression and classification in the context of sparse observations, that has been successfully applied to collaborative filtering, especially when side information over users or items is…

Parameter estimation connects mathematical models to real-world data and decision making across many scientific and industrial applications. Standard approaches such as maximum likelihood estimation and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimate…